Čelik
vs
Sloga Doboj
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Čelik 1–0 Sloga Doboj
The model makes it 56% Čelik, 26% draw, 18% Sloga Doboj — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Čelik 1.82, Sloga Doboj 0.82.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Čelik: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Čelik's rating is built from 13 Bosnian Premier League matches and Sloga Doboj's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Čelik are 8th on 11 points from 13 games; Sloga Doboj are bottom on 9 points from 13 games — Premijer Liga.
- Čelik have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Velež.
- Sloga Doboj have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to BSK Banja Luka.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Čelik vs Sloga Doboj
Has the model earned this number?
Čelik at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Čelik vs Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Premijer Liga
- D1-1away to Velež7 November 2026
- L2-4Borac Banja Luka31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Siroki Brijeg24 October 2026
- L0-3Zrinjski18 October 2026
- D0-0FK Sarajevo11 October 2026
Sloga Doboj
Premijer Liga
- L1-3BSK Banja Luka8 November 2026
- L0-1Velež1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka25 October 2026
- L0-1Siroki Brijeg16 October 2026
- L2-6Zrinjski11 October 2026
What these results say
- Čelik did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sloga Doboj did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sloga Doboj conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Čelik | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Sloga Doboj | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Čelik
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 24% today
Sloga Doboj
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 89% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Čelik vs Sloga Doboj
- 1 September 2026Sloga Doboj 0–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: Čelik and Sloga Doboj
Čelik
GoalsAssists
- A. Hrvanović22
- Anes Mašić11
Sloga Doboj
No player in Premijer Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Čelik the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Čelik against 0.82 for Sloga Doboj. Čelik's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/2.38 for Sloga Doboj.
How the model reaches 56% for Čelik to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Čelik to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Čelik's ratings add 8 points and Sloga Doboj's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Čelik's ratings51%+8
- Sloga Doboj's ratings56%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Čelik at home · Sloga Doboj away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Čelik 13, Sloga Doboj 13.
Čelik score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Sloga Doboj have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Čelik
- vs BSK Banja Luka28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 42%
- at Radnik Bijeljina2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 30%
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 44%
- at FK Sarajevo12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 17%
- at Zrinjski6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 9%
Sloga Doboj
- vs Radnik Bijeljina28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 31%
- at Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 18%
- vs FK Sarajevo5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 19%
- at Zrinjski12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 5%
- at Siroki Brijeg6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.