Ben Aknoun
vs
USM Alger
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Ben Aknoun 2–1 USM Alger
The model makes it 38% Ben Aknoun, 26% draw, 36% USM Alger — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ben Aknoun 1.59, USM Alger 1.51.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Ben Aknoun and USM Alger are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Ben Aknoun's rating is built from 38 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and USM Alger's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Ben Aknoun are 11th on 8 points from 8 games; USM Alger are 6th on 14 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Ben Aknoun have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to CR Belouizdad.
- USM Alger are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to CS Constantine.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 June 2026, ended Ben Aknoun 2–2 USM Alger.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger
Has the model earned this number?
Ben Aknoun at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger
Ben Aknoun
Ligue 1
- L0-1CR Belouizdad8 November 2026
- D1-1away to MB Rouisset31 October 2026
- D0-0away to JS Saoura24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Olympique Akbou16 October 2026
- D2-2JS El Biar7 October 2026
USM Alger
Ligue 1
- W2-0away to CS Constantine31 October 2026
- D2-2CR Belouizdad24 October 2026
- W1-0JS Saoura13 October 2026
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
- W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026
What these results say
- Ben Aknoun did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ben Aknoun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- USM Alger scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ben Aknoun | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | USM Alger | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ben Aknoun
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
USM Alger
Chance to finish in the top two · 18% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger
- 4 June 2026Ben Aknoun 2–2 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 18 December 2025USM Alger 2–2 Ben AknounLigue 1
- 30 May 2024USM Alger 0–2 Ben AknounLigue 1
- 23 January 2024Ben Aknoun 1–2 USM AlgerLigue 1
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour USM Alger (6th, with Ben Aknoun 11th), while our numbers lean to Ben Aknoun. Ben Aknoun rate 0.62 in attack and 1.96 in defence, USM Alger 0.64 and 1.58 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ben Aknoun a 0.2% chance of the title and USM Alger 6.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Ben Aknoun v USM Alger has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is USM Alger's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Ben Aknoun win38%▼ −2
- Draw26%▼ −2
- USM Alger win36%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ben Aknoun the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Ben Aknoun against 1.51 for USM Alger. Ben Aknoun's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.58 for USM Alger.
How the model reaches 38% for Ben Aknoun to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ben Aknoun to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Ben Aknoun's ratings take away 3 points and USM Alger's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Ben Aknoun's ratings42%−3
- USM Alger's ratings38%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Ben Aknoun at home · USM Alger away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Ben Aknoun 8, USM Alger 7.
Ben Aknoun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); USM Alger have let in 0 there.
USM Alger score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Ben Aknoun have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ben Aknoun
- vs MC Alger28 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs MC Oran1 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Témouchent26 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
USM Alger
- vs ASO Chlef28 Nov · Ligue 1win 59%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.