Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

BSK Banja Luka vs Zrinjski Premijer Liga prediction

Stadion Caire, Banja Luka

Our model says: BSK Banja Luka 1–2 Zrinjski

The model makes it 21% BSK Banja Luka, 23% draw, 56% Zrinjski — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).

Expected goals: BSK Banja Luka 1.20, Zrinjski 2.27.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Zrinjski are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. BSK Banja Luka's rating is built from 13 Bosnian Premier League matches and Zrinjski's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • BSK Banja Luka are 5th on 16 points from 13 games; Zrinjski are top on 34 points from 13 games — Premijer Liga.
  • BSK Banja Luka are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Sloga Doboj.
  • Zrinjski are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FK Sarajevo.

More Bosnian Premier League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: BSK Banja Luka vs Zrinjski

63%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

BSK Banja Luka win Draw Zrinjski win
  1. 1–210%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 0–28%
  4. 1–37%
  5. 0–17%
  6. 0–36%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read BSK Banja Luka first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Zrinjski at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into BSK Banja Luka vs Zrinjski

BSK Banja Luka

Premijer Liga

  • W3-1away to Sloga Doboj8 November 2026
  • D1-1FK Sarajevo1 November 2026
  • W3-2away to Velež25 October 2026
  • D1-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka10 October 2026

Zrinjski

Premijer Liga

  • D0-0FK Sarajevo8 November 2026
  • W4-0away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo31 October 2026
  • W1-0Radnik Bijeljina23 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Čelik18 October 2026
  • W6-2away to Sloga Doboj11 October 2026

What these results say

  • BSK Banja Luka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • BSK Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for BSK Banja Luka.
  • Zrinjski went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Zrinjski won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Zrinjski scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premijer Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5BSK Banja Luka134452021-116
1Zrinjski131111317+2434

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

BSK Banja Luka

Chance to finish in the top four · 31% today

Win 39%
Draw 33%
Defeat 28%

Zrinjski

Chance to win the league · 58% today

Win 62%
Draw 56%
Defeat 50%

From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: BSK Banja Luka vs Zrinjski

  • 1 September 2026Zrinjski 3–1 BSK Banja LukaPremijer Liga

Leading scorers: BSK Banja Luka and Zrinjski

BSK Banja Luka

GoalsAssists

  • D. Čavić31
  • S. Marčetić20
  • D. Dizdarevic11

Zrinjski

GoalsAssists

  • A. Ilic31
  • N. Bilbija31
  • M. Ćuže20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives BSK Banja Luka a 0% chance of the title and Zrinjski 58.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on BSK Banja Luka v Zrinjski has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 19% / 22% / 59% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 21% / 23% / 56%: the biggest move is Zrinjski's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. BSK Banja Luka win21%▲ +2
  2. Draw23%▲ +1
  3. Zrinjski win56%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

BSK Banja Luka Zrinjski
0.61 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.75
2.51 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.21
1.20 Model expected goals (this match) 2.27

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Zrinjski the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for BSK Banja Luka against 2.27 for Zrinjski. BSK Banja Luka's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.21 for Zrinjski.

BSK Banja Luka carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.61 for Zrinjski.

How the model reaches 56% for Zrinjski to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Zrinjski to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, BSK Banja Luka's ratings add 14 points and Zrinjski's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 56%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. BSK Banja Luka's ratings43%+14
  4. Zrinjski's ratings56%+13

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

BSK Banja LukaZrinjski
13Matches13
4W 4D 5LRecord11W 1D 1L
20 1.5 per gameGoals scored31 2.4 per game
21 1.6 per gameGoals conceded7 0.5 per game
1 of 13Clean sheets7 of 13
3 of 13Failed to score2 of 13
–Penalties scored–
16 1.2 per gameYellow cards20 1.5 per game
1Red cards0
4-3-3 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 7×

BSK Banja Luka at home · Zrinjski away

6Played6
2W 3D 1LRecord5W 0D 1L
11–9Goals for – against19–4
1 of 6Clean sheets3 of 6

League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premijer Liga matches this season: BSK Banja Luka 13, Zrinjski 13.

BSK Banja Luka scored 122338
Zrinjski conceded 013020

BSK Banja Luka score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Zrinjski have let in 0 there.

Zrinjski scored 346946
BSK Banja Luka conceded 233347

Zrinjski score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); BSK Banja Luka have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

BSK Banja Luka

  • at Čelik28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 34%
  • vs Siroki Brijeg2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 50%
  • at Radnik Bijeljina5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 34%
  • vs Borac Banja Luka12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 22%
  • at Zeljeznicar Sarajevo6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 33%

Zrinjski

  • at Siroki Brijeg28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 56%
  • vs Borac Banja Luka2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 46%
  • at Velež5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 57%
  • vs Sloga Doboj12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 81%
  • vs Čelik6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 74%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.