Standard Liege
vs
SK Beveren
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Standard Liege 1–0 SK Beveren
The model makes it 54% Standard Liege, 25% draw, 21% SK Beveren — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Standard Liege 1.86, SK Beveren 0.95.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,453 settled matches.
Edge to Standard Liege: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Standard Liege's rating is built from 48 Jupiler Pro League matches and SK Beveren's from 8, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- Standard Liege are 9th on 11 points from 8 games; SK Beveren are 11th on 9 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Standard Liege are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Charleroi.
- SK Beveren have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Lommel United.
- Last 6 meetings: Standard Liege 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 October 2025, ended SK Beveren 1–2 Standard Liege.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Standard Liege vs SK Beveren
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Standard Liege at 54% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Standard Liege vs SK Beveren
Standard Liege
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-1Charleroi11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Gent18 September 2026
- L2-4away to KVC Westerlo12 September 2026
- W1-0Antwerp5 September 2026
- W2-1away to OH Leuven29 August 2026
SK Beveren
Jupiler Pro League
- L1-3Lommel United9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Kortrijk20 September 2026
- W2-0St. Truiden12 September 2026
- W3-0OH Leuven6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Genk28 August 2026
What these results say
- Standard Liege scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Standard Liege conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Standard Liege vs SK Beveren
- 28 October 2025SK Beveren 1–2 Standard LiegeCup
- 11 January 2021Standard Liege 3–1 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
- 17 August 2020SK Beveren 1–2 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 21 December 2019SK Beveren 2–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 30 October 2019Standard Liege 2–0 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
- 17 March 2019Standard Liege 4–3 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Standard Liege and SK Beveren
Standard Liege
GoalsAssists
- D. Eckert Ayensa41
- A. Abid32
SK Beveren
GoalsAssists
- C. Lokesa40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Standard Liege carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.52 for SK Beveren. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Standard Liege and 0.95 for SK Beveren. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Standard Liege rate 0.84 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SK Beveren rate 0.71 and 1.37.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Standard Liege the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Standard Liege against 0.95 for SK Beveren. Standard Liege's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.37 for SK Beveren.
How the model reaches 54% for Standard Liege to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Standard Liege to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Standard Liege's ratings take away 7 points and SK Beveren's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Standard Liege's ratings36%−7
- SK Beveren's ratings54%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Standard Liege at home · SK Beveren away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Standard LiegeSK Beveren
Standard Liege are 9th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 3rd and 11th so far); SK Beveren are 11th after 8 (between 8th and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Standard Liege 8, SK Beveren 8.
Standard Liege score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); SK Beveren have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Standard Liege
- at Lommel United22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 26%
- vs Club Brugge KV29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 19%
- at Zulte Waregem12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
SK Beveren
- vs Gent22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 21%
- at Charleroi28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 16%
- vs Cercle Brugge12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.