Everton
vs
Coventry
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Everton 1–0 Coventry
The model makes it 47% Everton, 27% draw, 26% Coventry — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Everton 1.65, Coventry 1.07.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Edge to Everton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Everton's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Coventry's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 830 matches.
Key facts
- Everton are 8th on 10 points from 7 games; Coventry are 17th on 6 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Everton have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Chelsea.
- Coventry have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Tottenham.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Everton vs Coventry
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Everton at 47% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Everton vs Coventry
Everton
Premier League
- L0-2Chelsea17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026
- W1-0Ipswich19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tottenham12 September 2026
- D2-2Manchester United6 September 2026
Coventry
Premier League
- L1-3away to Tottenham19 October 2026
- W4-1Newcastle12 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest19 September 2026
- L0-5Brighton13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Manchester City5 September 2026
What these results say
- Everton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coventry conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 17 | Coventry | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Everton vs Coventry
- 30 July 2024Coventry 3–0 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Everton and Coventry
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry30
Coventry
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Everton carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.71 for Coventry. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Everton and 1.07 for Coventry. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Everton rate 0.90 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Coventry rate 0.87 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Everton the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Everton against 1.07 for Coventry. Everton's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.14 for Coventry.
How the model reaches 47% for Everton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Everton to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Everton's ratings take away 1 point and Coventry's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Everton's ratings40%−1
- Coventry's ratings47%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Everton at home · Coventry away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
EvertonCoventry
Everton are 8th after 7 Premier League matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Coventry are 17th after 7 (between 14th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Everton 7, Coventry 7.
Everton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Coventry have let in 3 there.
Coventry score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Everton have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Everton
- at Brentford23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Liverpool29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Aston Villa2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Coventry
- vs Crystal Palace21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Leeds28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Ipswich2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.