St. Truiden
vs
OH Leuven
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: St. Truiden 1–0 OH Leuven
The model makes it 54% St. Truiden, 25% draw, 21% OH Leuven — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: St. Truiden 1.88, OH Leuven 0.97.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to St. Truiden: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- St. Truiden are 12th on 8 points from 8 games; OH Leuven are 15th on 5 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- St. Truiden are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to KV Mechelen.
- OH Leuven are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Union St. Gilloise.
- Last 6 meetings: St. Truiden 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended St. Truiden 1–0 OH Leuven.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Truiden at 54% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into St. Truiden vs OH Leuven
St. Truiden
- L3-4away to KV Mechelen11 October 2026
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
OH Leuven
- D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise11 October 2026
- W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026
- D1-1Cercle Brugge12 September 2026
- L0-3away to SK Beveren6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Gent3 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Truiden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- OH Leuven failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- OH Leuven conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for OH Leuven had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven
- 18 January 2026St. Truiden 1–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 23 November 2025OH Leuven 1–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 16 March 2025OH Leuven 3–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 15 September 2024St. Truiden 2–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 17 May 2024St. Truiden 1–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 20 April 2024OH Leuven 1–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: St. Truiden and OH Leuven
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- R. Merlen34
OH Leuven
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
St. Truiden carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.59 for OH Leuven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for St. Truiden and 0.97 for OH Leuven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Truiden rate 1.02 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OH Leuven rate 0.66 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Truiden the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for St. Truiden against 0.97 for OH Leuven. St. Truiden's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.14 for OH Leuven.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St. Truiden at home · OH Leuven away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
St. TruidenOH Leuven
St. Truiden are 12th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 5th and 12th so far); OH Leuven are 14th after 8 (between 14th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: St. Truiden 8, OH Leuven 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
St. Truiden
- vs Brann5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 54%
- vs Zulte Waregem8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
- at Charleroi21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 27%
OH Leuven
- vs KV Mechelen7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 40%
- at Anderlecht22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 20%
- vs Kortrijk27 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 53%
- at Genk11 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.