Lommel United
vs
Gent
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Lommel United 0–1 Gent
The model makes it 33% Lommel United, 31% draw, 36% Gent — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lommel United 1.07, Gent 1.12.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lommel United and Gent are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Lommel United are 10th on 11 points from 8 games; Gent are top on 22 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Lommel United have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to SK Beveren.
- Gent are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Zulte Waregem.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lommel United vs Gent
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gent at 36% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lommel United vs Gent
Lommel United
- W3-1away to SK Beveren9 October 2026
- D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Union St. Gilloise12 September 2026
- L0-1Club Brugge KV4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cercle Brugge29 August 2026
Gent
- W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
- W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genk13 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
- W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026
What these results say
- Gent went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gent scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lommel United vs Gent
- 1 December 2021Lommel United 0–2 GentCup
Leading scorers: Lommel United and Gent
Lommel United
GoalsAssists
- T. Reyners30
Gent
GoalsAssists
- J. Y. Vergara Ortega30
- I. Cisse30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lommel United carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.98 for Gent. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Lommel United and 1.12 for Gent. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lommel United rate 0.87 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gent rate 0.97 and 0.76.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lommel United a 0% chance of the title and Gent 7.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lommel United against 1.12 for Gent. Lommel United's attack/defence rating is 0.87/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.76 for Gent.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lommel United at home · Gent away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Lommel UnitedGent
Lommel United are 8th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 4th and 13th so far); Gent are 1st after 8 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Lommel United 8, Gent 8.
Gent score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Lommel United have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lommel United
- at Antwerp7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 42%
- vs Standard Liege22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
- vs Zulte Waregem28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
- at Kortrijk12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 55%
Gent
- at KuPS5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 55%
- vs Kortrijk8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 73%
- at SK Beveren22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.