Charleroi
vs
RAAL La Louvière
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Charleroi 2–0 RAAL La Louvière
The model makes it 61% Charleroi, 23% draw, 16% RAAL La Louvière — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Charleroi 2.11, RAAL La Louvière 0.82.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Charleroi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Charleroi are 3rd on 21 points from 8 games; RAAL La Louvière are 16th on 4 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Charleroi are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Standard Liege.
- RAAL La Louvière have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Club Brugge KV.
- Last 2 meetings: RAAL La Louvière 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 November 2025, ended Charleroi 0–0 RAAL La Louvière.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charleroi at 61% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière
Charleroi
- W1-0away to Standard Liege11 October 2026
- W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Zulte Waregem13 September 2026
- L2-3Union St. Gilloise5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Kortrijk29 August 2026
RAAL La Louvière
- L1-4Club Brugge KV10 October 2026
- L0-2away to OH Leuven19 September 2026
- W3-0Kortrijk13 September 2026
- L0-4away to St. Truiden5 September 2026
- D2-2KV Mechelen29 August 2026
What these results say
- Charleroi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi won 4 of these 5 matches.
- RAAL La Louvière failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- RAAL La Louvière conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for RAAL La Louvière had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière
- 29 November 2025Charleroi 0–0 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
- 10 August 2025RAAL La Louvière 1–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière
Charleroi
GoalsAssists
- F. Situmona Mbemba30
RAAL La Louvière
GoalsAssists
- M. Ubandoma50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Charleroi carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.51 for RAAL La Louvière. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Charleroi and 0.82 for RAAL La Louvière. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charleroi rate 0.94 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RAAL La Louvière rate 0.71 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Charleroi a 1.7% chance of the title and RAAL La Louvière 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charleroi the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Charleroi against 0.82 for RAAL La Louvière. Charleroi's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.39 for RAAL La Louvière.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Charleroi at home · RAAL La Louvière away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CharleroiRAAL La Louvière
Charleroi are 3rd after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 4th so far); RAAL La Louvière are 15th after 8 (between 14th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Charleroi 8, RAAL La Louvière 8.
Charleroi score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); RAAL La Louvière have let in 1 there.
RAAL La Louvière score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Charleroi have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Charleroi
- at KVC Westerlo7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 35%
- vs St. Truiden21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 47%
- vs SK Beveren28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 61%
- at Anderlecht13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 32%
RAAL La Louvière
- vs Cercle Brugge7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
- at Genk21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 17%
- at KVC Westerlo28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%
- vs Antwerp12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.