Puszcza Niepołomice
vs
Miedz Legnica
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Puszcza Niepołomice 1–0 Miedz Legnica
The model makes it 37% Puszcza Niepołomice, 30% draw, 33% Miedz Legnica — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Puszcza Niepołomice 1.20, Miedz Legnica 1.13.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 940 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Puszcza Niepołomice's rating is built from 45 Polish I Liga matches and Miedz Legnica's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Puszcza Niepołomice are bottom on 9 points from 11 games; Miedz Legnica are 8th on 17 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Nieciecza.
- Miedz Legnica have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Stal Mielec.
- Last 6 meetings: Miedz Legnica 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Miedz Legnica 2–1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Miedz Legnica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puszcza Niepołomice at 37% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Puszcza Niepołomice vs Miedz Legnica
Puszcza Niepołomice
I Liga
- L0-2away to Nieciecza19 October 2026
- W3-1away to Pogoń Siedlce15 October 2026
- L0-1Polonia Bytom11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Warta Poznań18 September 2026
- L1-2ŁKS Łódź11 September 2026
Miedz Legnica
I Liga
- W3-0Stal Mielec17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Odra Opole11 October 2026
- L2-3Stal Rzeszów19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk13 September 2026
- D1-1Chrobry Głogów5 September 2026
What these results say
- Puszcza Niepołomice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Miedz Legnica
- 24 May 2026Miedz Legnica 2–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 21 November 2025Puszcza Niepołomice 1–3 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 6 March 2022Miedz Legnica 3–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 20 August 2021Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 19 May 2021Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 16 October 2020Miedz Legnica 1–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Puszcza Niepołomice carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.35 for Miedz Legnica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.13 for Miedz Legnica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puszcza Niepołomice rate 0.49 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Miedz Legnica rate 0.55 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Miedz Legnica, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 0.2% chance of the title and Miedz Legnica 6.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puszcza Niepołomice the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.13 for Miedz Legnica. Puszcza Niepołomice's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.51 for Miedz Legnica.
How the model reaches 37% for Puszcza Niepołomice to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Puszcza Niepołomice to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Puszcza Niepołomice's ratings take away 28 points and Miedz Legnica's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Puszcza Niepołomice's ratings16%−28
- Miedz Legnica's ratings37%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Puszcza Niepołomice at home · Miedz Legnica away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Puszcza Niepołomice 11, Miedz Legnica 11.
Puszcza Niepołomice score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Miedz Legnica have let in 3 there.
Miedz Legnica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Puszcza Niepołomice have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Puszcza Niepołomice
- at Chrobry Głogów20 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- vs Stal Mielec28 Nov · I Ligawin 51%
- at Ruch Chorzów5 Dec · I Ligawin 22%
Miedz Legnica
- vs ŁKS Łódź20 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
- vs Polonia Bytom28 Nov · I Ligawin 50%
- at Pogoń Siedlce5 Dec · I Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.