Kortrijk
vs
KV Mechelen
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Kortrijk 0–1 KV Mechelen
The model makes it 26% Kortrijk, 28% draw, 46% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Kortrijk 1.05, KV Mechelen 1.54.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: KV Mechelen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kortrijk are 17th on 3 points from 8 games; KV Mechelen are 14th on 6 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Kortrijk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Genk.
- KV Mechelen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to St. Truiden.
- Last 6 meetings: KV Mechelen 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 November 2024, ended Kortrijk 3–1 KV Mechelen.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KV Mechelen at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen
Kortrijk
- L0-3away to Genk10 October 2026
- W1-0SK Beveren20 September 2026
- L0-3away to RAAL La Louvière13 September 2026
- L0-2Zulte Waregem6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Anderlecht3 September 2026
KV Mechelen
- W4-3St. Truiden11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026
- L0-1Anderlecht11 September 2026
- L0-4KVC Westerlo5 September 2026
- D2-2away to RAAL La Louvière29 August 2026
What these results say
- Kortrijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- KV Mechelen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- KV Mechelen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 3 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kortrijk
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 95% today
KV Mechelen
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen
- 29 November 2024Kortrijk 3–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 20 October 2024KV Mechelen 3–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 24 February 2024KV Mechelen 3–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 26 November 2023Kortrijk 0–3 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 21 January 2023KV Mechelen 3–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 11 January 2023Kortrijk 0–1 KV MechelenCup
The two sides
Kortrijk carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.61 for KV Mechelen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Kortrijk and 1.54 for KV Mechelen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kortrijk rate 0.49 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KV Mechelen rate 0.81 and 1.32.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KV Mechelen the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Kortrijk against 1.54 for KV Mechelen. Kortrijk's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.32 for KV Mechelen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kortrijk at home · KV Mechelen away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Kortrijk 8, KV Mechelen 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kortrijk
- at Standard Liege31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 13%
- at Gent8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 8%
- vs Union St. Gilloise22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 8%
- at OH Leuven27 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 19%
- vs Lommel United12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%
KV Mechelen
- vs Genk31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
- at OH Leuven7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs Club Brugge KV21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 14%
- at Cercle Brugge28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 24%
- vs Union St. Gilloise13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.