OH Leuven
vs
Lommel United
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: OH Leuven 0–1 Lommel United
The model makes it 28% OH Leuven, 31% draw, 41% Lommel United — fair odds of 3.57, 3.23 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: OH Leuven 0.96, Lommel United 1.28.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Lommel United: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- OH Leuven are 15th on 5 points from 8 games; Lommel United are 10th on 11 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- OH Leuven are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Union St. Gilloise.
- Lommel United have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to SK Beveren.
- Last 6 meetings: OH Leuven 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 July 2026, ended OH Leuven 5–1 Lommel United.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: OH Leuven vs Lommel United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lommel United at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into OH Leuven vs Lommel United
OH Leuven
- D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise11 October 2026
- W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026
- D1-1Cercle Brugge12 September 2026
- L0-3away to SK Beveren6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Gent3 September 2026
Lommel United
- W3-1away to SK Beveren9 October 2026
- D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Union St. Gilloise12 September 2026
- L0-1Club Brugge KV4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cercle Brugge29 August 2026
What these results say
- OH Leuven failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- OH Leuven conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for OH Leuven had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
OH Leuven
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 33% today
Lommel United
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: OH Leuven vs Lommel United
- 15 July 2026OH Leuven 5–1 Lommel UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 8 February 2020OH Leuven 3–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 6 December 2019Lommel United 3–2 OH LeuvenChallenger Pro League
- 20 October 2019Lommel United 0–2 OH LeuvenChallenger Pro League
- 22 September 2019OH Leuven 1–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 26 April 2019OH Leuven 1–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
Leading scorers: OH Leuven and Lommel United
OH Leuven
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Lommel United
GoalsAssists
- T. Reyners30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
OH Leuven carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.84 for Lommel United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for OH Leuven and 1.28 for Lommel United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OH Leuven rate 0.66 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lommel United rate 0.87 and 0.90.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lommel United the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for OH Leuven against 1.28 for Lommel United. OH Leuven's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.9 for Lommel United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
OH Leuven at home · Lommel United away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
OH LeuvenLommel United
OH Leuven are 14th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 14th and 17th so far); Lommel United are 8th after 8 (between 4th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: OH Leuven 8, Lommel United 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
OH Leuven
- at St. Truiden1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 21%
- vs KV Mechelen7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 40%
- at Anderlecht22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 20%
- vs Kortrijk27 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 53%
- at Genk11 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 19%
Lommel United
- vs Gent1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 33%
- at Antwerp7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 42%
- vs Standard Liege22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
- vs Zulte Waregem28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
- at Kortrijk12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.