Lokomotiv
vs
Rubin
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv 1–0 Rubin
The model makes it 50% Lokomotiv, 27% draw, 23% Rubin — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv 1.66, Rubin 0.97.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,453 settled matches.
Edge to Lokomotiv: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Lokomotiv's rating is built from 41 Russian Premier League matches and Rubin's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 576 matches.
Key facts
- Lokomotiv are 12th on 11 points from 11 games; Rubin are 10th on 12 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- Lokomotiv are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to FC Krasnodar.
- Rubin have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Spartak Moscow.
- Last 6 meetings: Rubin 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Lokomotiv 1–3 Rubin.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lokomotiv vs Rubin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv at 50% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv vs Rubin
Lokomotiv
Premier League
- D3-3FC Krasnodar17 October 2026
- W5-0away to Fakel10 October 2026
- D1-1Krylia Sovetov16 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zenit12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Baltika6 September 2026
Rubin
Premier League
- L0-4away to Spartak Moscow18 October 2026
- L0-1Dynamo11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rodina Moskva16 September 2026
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
- D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rubin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rubin had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Rubin | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs Rubin
- 18 July 2026Lokomotiv 1–3 RubinFriendlies Clubs
- 15 March 2026Rubin 3–0 LokomotivPremier League
- 27 September 2025Lokomotiv 1–0 RubinPremier League
- 12 April 2025Rubin 1–0 LokomotivPremier League
- 2 November 2024Lokomotiv 1–0 RubinPremier League
- 13 July 2024Lokomotiv 3–4 RubinFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and Rubin
Lokomotiv
GoalsAssists
- N. Titkov31
Rubin
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.2 for Rubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Lokomotiv and 0.97 for Rubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv rate 0.64 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rubin rate 0.45 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rubin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lokomotiv a 0.1% chance of the title and Rubin 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lokomotiv against 0.97 for Rubin. Lokomotiv's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.67 for Rubin.
How the model reaches 50% for Lokomotiv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lokomotiv to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Lokomotiv's ratings take away 24 points and Rubin's ratings add 32 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Lokomotiv's ratings18%−24
- Rubin's ratings50%+32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lokomotiv at home · Rubin away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Lokomotiv 11, Rubin 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lokomotiv
- at Rodina Moskva22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 52%
- vs Dinamo Makhachkala29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- at Akhmat5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Rubin
- vs Zenit21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Akron28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at FC Krasnodar6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.