Antwerp
vs
Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Antwerp 0–1 Charleroi
The model makes it 29% Antwerp, 27% draw, 44% Charleroi — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Antwerp 1.16, Charleroi 1.57.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Charleroi: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Antwerp are 13th on 7 points from 8 games; Charleroi are 3rd on 21 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Antwerp have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to KVC Westerlo.
- Charleroi are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Standard Liege.
- Last 6 meetings: Charleroi 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Antwerp 0–1 Charleroi.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Antwerp vs Charleroi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charleroi at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Antwerp vs Charleroi
Antwerp
- L1-5away to KVC Westerlo11 October 2026
- L0-2Union St. Gilloise20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Club Brugge KV13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Standard Liege5 September 2026
- L1-4St. Truiden30 August 2026
Charleroi
- W1-0away to Standard Liege11 October 2026
- W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Zulte Waregem13 September 2026
- L2-3Union St. Gilloise5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Kortrijk29 August 2026
What these results say
- Antwerp did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Antwerp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 7 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Antwerp
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
Charleroi
Chance to finish in the top four · 53% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Antwerp vs Charleroi
- 10 May 2026Antwerp 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 10 April 2026Charleroi 2–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 25 January 2026Antwerp 0–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 17 August 2025Charleroi 1–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 29 May 2025Antwerp 1–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 8 December 2024Antwerp 1–3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Antwerp and Charleroi
Antwerp
GoalsAssists
- M. Frey40
Charleroi
GoalsAssists
- F. Situmona Mbemba30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Antwerp carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.88 for Charleroi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Antwerp and 1.57 for Charleroi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Antwerp rate 0.80 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charleroi rate 0.94 and 0.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Antwerp a 0% chance of the title and Charleroi 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charleroi the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Antwerp against 1.57 for Charleroi. Antwerp's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.9 for Charleroi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Antwerp at home · Charleroi away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AntwerpCharleroi
Antwerp are 13th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 13th so far); Charleroi are 3rd after 8 (between 1st and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Antwerp 8, Charleroi 8.
Antwerp score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Charleroi have let in 0 there.
Charleroi score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Antwerp have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Antwerp
- at Cercle Brugge1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 24%
- vs Lommel United7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
- at Zulte Waregem21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Anderlecht29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
- at RAAL La Louvière12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 35%
Charleroi
- vs RAAL La Louvière1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 61%
- at KVC Westerlo7 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 35%
- vs St. Truiden21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 47%
- vs SK Beveren28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 61%
- at Anderlecht13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.