Regular Season - 12 · 22 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

SK Beveren vs Gent Jupiler Pro League prediction

Freethiel Stadion, Beveren

Our model says: SK Beveren 0–1 Gent

The model makes it 21% SK Beveren, 26% draw, 53% Gent — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: SK Beveren 0.96, Gent 1.80.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Gent are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. SK Beveren's rating is built from 11 Jupiler Pro League matches and Gent's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.

Key facts

SK Beveren are 15th on 10 points from 11 games; Gent are 3rd on 28 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
SK Beveren have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Standard Liege.
Gent have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kortrijk.
Last 5 meetings: Gent 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Gent 4–0 SK Beveren.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: SK Beveren vs Gent

52%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

SK Beveren win Draw Gent win

1–111%
0–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%
1–36%

Scores read SK Beveren first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Gent at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into SK Beveren vs Gent

SK Beveren

Jupiler Pro League

L0-3away to Standard Liege6 November 2026
L1-2Union St. Gilloise31 October 2026
D4-4away to KVC Westerlo24 October 2026
L1-3Lommel United9 October 2026
L0-1away to Kortrijk20 September 2026

Gent

Jupiler Pro League

W1-0Kortrijk8 November 2026
L0-2away to Lommel United1 November 2026
W4-0Anderlecht25 October 2026
W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026

What these results say

SK Beveren did not win any of these 5 matches.
SK Beveren conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for SK Beveren had three goals or more.
Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
Gent scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
15	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	13	23	-10	10
3	Gent	11	9	1	1	20	6	+14	28

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

SK Beveren

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 24% today

Win 18%

Draw 24%

Defeat 26%

Gent

Chance to finish in the top four · 87% today

Win 90%

Draw 86%

Defeat 81%

From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: SK Beveren vs Gent

11 July 2026Gent 4–0 SK BeverenFriendlies Clubs
12 July 2022Gent 2–2 SK BeverenFriendlies Clubs
16 December 2020Gent 3–0 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
1 November 2020SK Beveren 1–4 GentJupiler Pro League
19 October 2019Gent 2–0 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: SK Beveren and Gent

SK Beveren

GoalsAssists

C. Lokesa50

Gent

GoalsAssists

I. Cisse40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SK Beveren a 0% chance of the title and Gent 7.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

SK Beveren Gent

0.79 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.94

1.48 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.74

0.96 Model expected goals (this match) 1.80

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gent the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for SK Beveren against 1.80 for Gent. SK Beveren's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.74 for Gent.

SK Beveren carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.99 for Gent.

How the model reaches 53% for Gent to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gent to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, SK Beveren's ratings add 12 points and Gent's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 53%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage30%−6
SK Beveren's ratings42%+12
Gent's ratings53%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

SK BeverenModelGent

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

77%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

52%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

30%

model, this match

10%

1 of 10 games

Both teams score

30%

3 of 10 games

52%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

SK BeverenGent

11Matches11

3W 1D 7LRecord9W 1D 1L

13 1.2 per gameGoals scored20 1.8 per game

23 2.1 per gameGoals conceded6 0.5 per game

3 of 11Clean sheets6 of 11

4 of 11Failed to score1 of 11

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1

23 2.1 per gameYellow cards18 1.6 per game

1Red cards1

4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape3-4-2-1 10×

SK Beveren at home · Gent away

5Played5

3W 0D 2LRecord3W 1D 1L

8–5Goals for – against8–4

3 of 5Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

SK BeverenGent

SK Beveren are 15th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 8th and 14th so far); Gent are 3rd after 11 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: SK Beveren 11, Gent 11.

SK Beveren scored 112324

Gent conceded 112102

SK Beveren score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Gent have let in 2 there.

Gent scored 315217

SK Beveren conceded 334742

Gent score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); SK Beveren have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

SK Beveren

at Charleroi28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 15%
vs Cercle Brugge12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 32%
vs KV Mechelen19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 39%
at RAAL La Louvière26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
vs Club Brugge KV15 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 13%

Gent

vs FK Crvena Zvezda26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 51%
at Union St. Gilloise29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 21%
at FC Thun10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 57%
vs St. Truiden13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 51%
vs Brann17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.