Mlada Boleslav
vs
Hradec Králové
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Hradec Králové
The model makes it 41% Mlada Boleslav, 29% draw, 30% Hradec Králové — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.35, Hradec Králové 1.08.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Mlada Boleslav are 4th on 20 points from 11 games; Hradec Králové are 10th on 15 points from 11 games — Czech Liga.
- Mlada Boleslav have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Teplice.
- Hradec Králové are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Slavia Praha.
- Last 6 meetings: Mlada Boleslav 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 December 2025, ended Hradec Králové 1–1 Mlada Boleslav.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mlada Boleslav at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové
Mlada Boleslav
- W1-0Teplice17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bohemians 190514 October 2026
- L0-3away to Plzen10 October 2026
- W2-0Zbrojovka Brno19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
Hradec Králové
- D0-0away to Slavia Praha17 October 2026
- L2-4Artis10 October 2026
- L0-2Teplice20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zlin13 September 2026
- D0-0Plzen9 September 2026
What these results say
- Hradec Králové failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 | Hradec Králové | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové
- 13 December 2025Hradec Králové 1–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 16 August 2025Mlada Boleslav 3–2 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 1 December 2024Mlada Boleslav 3–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 4 August 2024Hradec Králové 2–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 31 May 2024Mlada Boleslav 3–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 24 February 2024Hradec Králové 0–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert61
- J. Klíma41
- S. John33
Hradec Králové
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mlada Boleslav carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.67 for Hradec Králové. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.08 for Hradec Králové. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mlada Boleslav rate 0.84 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hradec Králové rate 0.72 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mlada Boleslav a 0.3% chance of the title and Hradec Králové 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mlada Boleslav the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav against 1.08 for Hradec Králové. Mlada Boleslav's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.06 for Hradec Králové.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mlada Boleslav at home · Hradec Králové away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Mlada Boleslav 11, Hradec Králové 11.
Mlada Boleslav score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Hradec Králové have let in 1 there.
Hradec Králové score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Mlada Boleslav have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Mlada Boleslav
- at FK Jablonec8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 35%
- vs Zlin21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 59%
- vs Sigma Olomouc28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 39%
- at Sparta Praha5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 19%
Hradec Králové
- vs Sigma Olomouc7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
- at Slovácko22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 38%
- vs Bohemians 190528 Nov · Czech Ligawin 40%
- at Baník Ostrava6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.