Bohemians 1905
vs
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Bohemians 1905 0–1 Sparta Praha
The model makes it 24% Bohemians 1905, 28% draw, 48% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 4.17, 3.57 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bohemians 1905 0.96, Sparta Praha 1.58.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Sparta Praha are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Bohemians 1905 are 9th on 15 points from 10 games; Sparta Praha are 5th on 18 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Bohemians 1905 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Mlada Boleslav.
- Sparta Praha are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Pardubice.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Praha 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Bohemians 1905 2–0 Sparta Praha.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha
Bohemians 1905
- W1-0Mlada Boleslav14 October 2026
- W1-0Baník Ostrava10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pardubice19 September 2026
- W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc5 September 2026
Sparta Praha
- W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026
- W3-0away to Sigma Olomouc20 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
What these results say
- Bohemians 1905 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bohemians 1905 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Sparta Praha | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha
- 25 April 2026Bohemians 1905 2–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 28 October 2025Sparta Praha 2–1 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 7 December 2024Sparta Praha 1–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 10 August 2024Bohemians 1905 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 13 April 2024Bohemians 1905 1–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 4 November 2023Sparta Praha 2–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
Leading scorers: Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha
Bohemians 1905
GoalsAssists
- A. Čermák41
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bohemians 1905 carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.96 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.58 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bohemians 1905 rate 0.67 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 1.18 and 0.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bohemians 1905 a 0% chance of the title and Sparta Praha 8.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 against 1.58 for Sparta Praha. Bohemians 1905's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.18/0.95 for Sparta Praha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bohemians 1905 at home · Sparta Praha away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Bohemians 1905Sparta Praha
Bohemians 1905 are 9th after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 8th and 15th so far); Sparta Praha are 3rd after 10 (between 2nd and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Bohemians 1905 10, Sparta Praha 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bohemians 1905
- at Slovan Liberec7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 26%
- vs Plzen21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 28%
- at Hradec Králové28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 28%
Sparta Praha
- vs Bournemouth5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 52%
- at Plzen8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.