Standard Liege
vs
Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Standard Liege 2–0 Kortrijk
The model makes it 63% Standard Liege, 23% draw, 14% Kortrijk — fair odds of 1.59, 4.35 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Standard Liege 2.00, Kortrijk 0.66.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Standard Liege are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Standard Liege are 9th on 11 points from 8 games; Kortrijk are 17th on 3 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Standard Liege are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Charleroi.
- Kortrijk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Genk.
- Last 6 meetings: Kortrijk 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 January 2025, ended Standard Liege 1–0 Kortrijk.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Standard Liege at 63% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Standard Liege vs Kortrijk
Standard Liege
- L0-1Charleroi11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Gent18 September 2026
- L2-4away to KVC Westerlo12 September 2026
- W1-0Antwerp5 September 2026
- W2-1away to OH Leuven29 August 2026
Kortrijk
- L0-3away to Genk10 October 2026
- W1-0SK Beveren20 September 2026
- L0-3away to RAAL La Louvière13 September 2026
- L0-2Zulte Waregem6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Anderlecht3 September 2026
What these results say
- Standard Liege scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Standard Liege conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Standard Liege
Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today
Kortrijk
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 95% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Standard Liege vs Kortrijk
- 10 January 2025Standard Liege 1–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 18 August 2024Kortrijk 1–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 20 January 2024Standard Liege 0–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 26 August 2023Kortrijk 1–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 12 February 2023Standard Liege 0–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 28 August 2022Kortrijk 0–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Standard Liege and Kortrijk
Standard Liege
GoalsAssists
- D. Eckert Ayensa41
- A. Abid32
Kortrijk
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Standard Liege carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.31 for Kortrijk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Standard Liege and 0.66 for Kortrijk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Standard Liege rate 0.84 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kortrijk rate 0.49 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Standard Liege the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Standard Liege against 0.66 for Kortrijk. Standard Liege's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.47 for Kortrijk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Standard Liege at home · Kortrijk away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Standard Liege 8, Kortrijk 8.
Standard Liege score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Kortrijk have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Standard Liege
- vs SK Beveren6 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 54%
- at Lommel United22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 26%
- vs Club Brugge KV29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 19%
- at Zulte Waregem12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
Kortrijk
- at Gent8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 8%
- vs Union St. Gilloise22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 9%
- at OH Leuven27 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 19%
- vs Lommel United12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.