Clausura - 21 · 25 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Our model says: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano

The model makes it 40% Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 28% draw, 32% Sportivo Ameliano — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1.47, Sportivo Ameliano 1.24.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Club Sp. San Lorenzo's rating is built from 19 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Ameliano's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo are bottom on 11 points from 19 games; Sportivo Ameliano are 9th on 19 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Rubio NU.
  • Sportivo Ameliano have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sportivo Trinidense.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sportivo Ameliano 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 September 2026, ended Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Club Sp. San Lorenzo win Draw Sportivo Ameliano win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–09%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Club Sp. San Lorenzo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D2-2Rubio NU9 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Nacional Asuncion3 November 2026
  • W2-1Libertad Asuncion31 October 2026
  • L1-3Cerro Porteno25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026

Sportivo Ameliano

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-3away to Sportivo Trinidense8 November 2026
  • L0-1Club Guarani4 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Deportivo Recoleta31 October 2026
  • L2-3Olimpia25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club Sp. San Lorenzo had three goals or more.
  • Sportivo Ameliano did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Sportivo Ameliano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Ameliano had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo1925121432-1811
9Sportivo Ameliano194781928-919

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sportivo Ameliano

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today

Win 6%
Draw 20%
Defeat 35%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Ameliano

  • 11 September 2026Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 31 March 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 31 January 2026Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 25 September 2021Sportivo Ameliano 3–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Intermedia
  • 19 June 2021Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Intermedia

Leading scorers: Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Sportivo Ameliano

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ferreira51

Sportivo Ameliano

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ocampos53
  • R. Torales51
  • E. Moreira50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sportivo Ameliano (9th, with Club Sp. San Lorenzo 12th), while our numbers lean to Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Club Sp. San Lorenzo rate 0.49 in attack and 1.90 in defence, Sportivo Ameliano 0.54 and 1.84 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Sportivo Ameliano
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
1.9 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.84
1.47 Model expected goals (this match) 1.24

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Club Sp. San Lorenzo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo against 1.24 for Sportivo Ameliano. Club Sp. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.84 for Sportivo Ameliano.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.24 for Sportivo Ameliano. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Club Sp. San Lorenzo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Sp. San Lorenzo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings take away 2 points and Sportivo Ameliano's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings42%−2
  4. Sportivo Ameliano's ratings40%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Club Sp. San LorenzoSportivo Ameliano
19Matches19
2W 5D 12LRecord4W 7D 8L
14 0.7 per gameGoals scored19 1.0 per game
32 1.7 per gameGoals conceded28 1.5 per game
2 of 19Clean sheets2 of 19
9 of 19Failed to score5 of 19
4 of 5Penalties scored4 of 4
43 2.3 per gameYellow cards41 2.2 per game
3Red cards4
4-4-2 12×Usual shape4-1-4-1 13×

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home · Sportivo Ameliano away

10Played10
1W 3D 6LRecord1W 5D 4L
7–18Goals for – against9–16
1 of 10Clean sheets0 of 10

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 19, Sportivo Ameliano 19.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scored 533210
Sportivo Ameliano conceded 217754

Club Sp. San Lorenzo score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Sportivo Ameliano have let in 2 there.

Sportivo Ameliano scored 014538
Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded 5263410

Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Club Sp. San Lorenzo have let in 10 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  • at Olimpia29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 9%

Sportivo Ameliano

  • vs Libertad Asuncion29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.