Rubio NU
vs
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Rubio NU 1–2 Libertad Asuncion
The model makes it 35% Rubio NU, 26% draw, 39% Libertad Asuncion — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rubio NU 1.51, Libertad Asuncion 1.60.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,192 settled matches.
Edge to Libertad Asuncion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Rubio NU's rating is built from 17 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Libertad Asuncion's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Rubio NU are 10th on 16 points from 17 games; Libertad Asuncion are 4th on 30 points from 17 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Rubio NU have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Sportivo Trinidense.
- Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Libertad Asuncion 4–2 Rubio NU.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rubio NU vs Libertad Asuncion
Has the model earned this number?
Libertad Asuncion at 39%: of 4,341 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.6% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rubio NU vs Libertad Asuncion
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W4-2away to Sportivo Trinidense30 October 2026
- L0-2Club Guarani23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026
- D0-0Olimpia11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sportivo Ameliano6 October 2026
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L1-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo31 October 2026
- W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026
- D2-2Club Guarani11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta5 October 2026
What these results say
- Rubio NU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Libertad Asuncion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Libertad Asuncion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rubio NU | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 16 |
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rubio NU
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
Libertad Asuncion
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Libertad Asuncion
- 6 September 2026Libertad Asuncion 4–2 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 21 April 2026Rubio NU 3–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 20 February 2026Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 9 November 2017Rubio NU 2–4 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 22 July 2017Libertad Asuncion 0–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 8 May 2017Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Libertad Asuncion
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz43
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera152
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rubio NU a 0% chance of the title and Libertad Asuncion 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad Asuncion the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Rubio NU against 1.60 for Libertad Asuncion. Rubio NU's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.47 for Libertad Asuncion.
How the model reaches 39% for Libertad Asuncion to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Libertad Asuncion to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Rubio NU's ratings add 5 points and Libertad Asuncion's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Rubio NU's ratings34%+5
- Libertad Asuncion's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rubio NU at home · Libertad Asuncion away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Rubio NU 17, Libertad Asuncion 17.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Rubio NU
- at Nacional Asuncion25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 14%
- vs Cerro Porteno29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
Libertad Asuncion
- vs 2 de Mayo25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 47%
- at Sportivo Ameliano29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.