Clausura - 20 · 18 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Estadio Arsenio Erico

Our model says: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Cerro Porteno

The model makes it 51% Nacional Asuncion, 28% draw, 21% Cerro Porteno — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Nacional Asuncion 1.57, Cerro Porteno 0.81.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,915 settled matches.

Edge to Nacional Asuncion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Nacional Asuncion's rating is built from 40 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Cerro Porteno's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Nacional Asuncion are 2nd on 32 points from 18 games; Cerro Porteno are 7th on 24 points from 17 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Nacional Asuncion have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
  • Cerro Porteno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Olimpia.
  • Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 September 2026, ended Cerro Porteno 1–0 Nacional Asuncion.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

45%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Nacional Asuncion win Draw Cerro Porteno win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Nacional Asuncion first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Nacional Asuncion at 51%: of 1,458 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.2% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

Nacional Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 November 2026
  • W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno31 October 2026
  • L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026
  • W1-0Deportivo Recoleta12 October 2026

Cerro Porteno

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-2Olimpia1 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 October 2026
  • D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno10 October 2026
  • L0-22 de Mayo5 October 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Nacional Asuncion had two goals or fewer.
  • Cerro Porteno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Nacional Asuncion189542611+1532
7Cerro Porteno177372319+424

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Nacional Asuncion

Chance to finish in the top four · 89% today

Win 96%
Draw 85%
Defeat 75%

Cerro Porteno

Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today

Win 18%
Draw 5%
Defeat 2%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

  • 7 September 2026Cerro Porteno 1–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 11 April 2026Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 15 February 2026Cerro Porteno 0–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 27 October 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–2 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 8 August 2025Cerro Porteno 0–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 15 April 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Cerro Porteno

Nacional Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • H. Benítez66
  • I. Valdez61
  • L. Meza40

Cerro Porteno

GoalsAssists

  • P. Vegetti80
  • D. Rodríguez44
  • J. Morel40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nacional Asuncion a 3.1% chance of the title and Cerro Porteno 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Nacional Asuncion Cerro Porteno
0.68 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.69
0.98 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.42
1.57 Model expected goals (this match) 0.81

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion against 0.81 for Cerro Porteno. Nacional Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.68/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.42 for Cerro Porteno.

Nacional Asuncion carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.49 for Cerro Porteno.

How the model reaches 51% for Nacional Asuncion to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nacional Asuncion to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Nacional Asuncion's ratings add 3 points and Cerro Porteno's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 51%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Nacional Asuncion's ratings45%+3
  5. Cerro Porteno's ratings51%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Nacional AsuncionCerro Porteno
18Matches17
9W 5D 4LRecord7W 3D 7L
26 1.4 per gameGoals scored23 1.4 per game
11 0.6 per gameGoals conceded19 1.1 per game
10 of 18Clean sheets5 of 17
4 of 18Failed to score3 of 17
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 5
32 1.8 per gameYellow cards21 1.2 per game
3Red cards1
4-1-4-1 10×Usual shape4-1-4-1 8×

Nacional Asuncion at home · Cerro Porteno away

9Played8
5W 2D 2LRecord3W 1D 4L
12–4Goals for – against13–10
6 of 9Clean sheets1 of 8

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Nacional Asuncion 18, Cerro Porteno 17.

Nacional Asuncion scored 544526
Cerro Porteno conceded 322543

Nacional Asuncion score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Cerro Porteno have let in 3 there.

Cerro Porteno scored 727141
Nacional Asuncion conceded 111241

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Nacional Asuncion

  • vs Rubio NU25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 63%
  • at 2 de Mayo29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%

Cerro Porteno

  • vs Club Guarani25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 40%
  • at Rubio NU29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.