Nacional Asuncion
vs
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Nacional Asuncion 2–0 Rubio NU
The model makes it 65% Nacional Asuncion, 21% draw, 14% Rubio NU — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Nacional Asuncion 2.27, Rubio NU 0.78.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Nacional Asuncion are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Nacional Asuncion's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Rubio NU's from 19, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Nacional Asuncion are 4th on 32 points from 19 games; Rubio NU are 10th on 17 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Nacional Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Libertad Asuncion.
- Rubio NU have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Last 6 meetings: Nacional Asuncion 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended Rubio NU 0–1 Nacional Asuncion.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nacional Asuncion vs Rubio NU
Has the model earned this number?
Nacional Asuncion at 65%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Rubio NU
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-3away to Libertad Asuncion7 November 2026
- L0-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 November 2026
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno31 October 2026
- L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D2-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo9 November 2026
- L0-5Sportivo Luqueno5 November 2026
- W4-2away to Sportivo Trinidense30 October 2026
- L0-2Club Guarani23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026
What these results say
- Rubio NU conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rubio NU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nacional Asuncion
Chance to finish in the top four · 82% today
Rubio NU
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 88% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Rubio NU
- 13 September 2026Rubio NU 0–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 15 May 2026Rubio NU 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 15 March 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 21 October 2017Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 11 August 2017Rubio NU 0–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 28 April 2017Rubio NU 1–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Rubio NU
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez66
- I. Valdez61
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion against 0.78 for Rubio NU. Nacional Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/2.15 for Rubio NU.
How the model reaches 65% for Nacional Asuncion to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nacional Asuncion to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Nacional Asuncion's ratings add 8 points and Rubio NU's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Nacional Asuncion's ratings52%+8
- Rubio NU's ratings65%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Nacional Asuncion at home · Rubio NU away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Nacional Asuncion 19, Rubio NU 19.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Nacional Asuncion
- at 2 de Mayo29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%
Rubio NU
- vs Cerro Porteno29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.