Olimpia
vs
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Olimpia 2–1 Sportivo Trinidense
The model makes it 53% Olimpia, 25% draw, 22% Sportivo Trinidense — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Olimpia 1.88, Sportivo Trinidense 1.02.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,915 settled matches.
Edge to Olimpia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Olimpia's rating is built from 39 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Trinidense's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Olimpia are top on 36 points from 17 games; Sportivo Trinidense are 3rd on 31 points from 18 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Cerro Porteno.
- Sportivo Trinidense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to 2 de Mayo.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpia 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Sportivo Trinidense 1–2 Olimpia.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olimpia vs Sportivo Trinidense
Has the model earned this number?
Olimpia at 53%: of 1,458 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.2% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Olimpia vs Sportivo Trinidense
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno1 November 2026
- W3-2away to Sportivo Ameliano25 October 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Rubio NU11 October 2026
- D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D0-0away to 2 de Mayo3 November 2026
- L2-4Rubio NU30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nacional Asuncion24 October 2026
- W1-0Libertad Asuncion18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo10 October 2026
What these results say
- Olimpia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olimpia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Trinidense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Trinidense had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 36 |
| 3 | Sportivo Trinidense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Olimpia
Chance to win the league · 94% today
Sportivo Trinidense
Chance to finish in the top four · 70% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Olimpia vs Sportivo Trinidense
- 6 September 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 April 2026Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 5 March 2026Sportivo Trinidense 0–1 OlimpiaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 1 February 2026Olimpia 3–2 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 19 September 2025Olimpia 1–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 13 July 2025Sportivo Trinidense 4–3 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Olimpia and Sportivo Trinidense
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- A. Alcaraz71
- S. Quintana41
- H. Sandoval40
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
- L. Abreu41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olimpia a 94% chance of the title and Sportivo Trinidense 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpia the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Olimpia against 1.02 for Sportivo Trinidense. Olimpia's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.36 for Sportivo Trinidense.
How the model reaches 53% for Olimpia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olimpia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Olimpia's ratings add 5 points and Sportivo Trinidense's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Olimpia's ratings49%+5
- Sportivo Trinidense's ratings53%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Olimpia at home · Sportivo Trinidense away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Olimpia 17, Sportivo Trinidense 18.
Olimpia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Sportivo Trinidense have let in 5 there.
Sportivo Trinidense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Olimpia have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Olimpia
- at Sportivo Luqueno25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 58%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 72%
Sportivo Trinidense
- vs Deportivo Recoleta25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 58%
- at Club Guarani29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.