San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston Dynamo
The model makes it 40% San Jose Earthquakes, 29% draw, 31% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.39, Houston Dynamo 1.17.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. San Jose Earthquakes's rating is built from 68 MLS matches and Houston Dynamo's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- San Jose Earthquakes are 4th on 52 points from 34 games; Houston Dynamo are 5th on 51 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- San Jose Earthquakes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Minnesota United FC.
- Houston Dynamo have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to St. Louis City.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston Dynamo.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
Has the model earned this number?
San Jose Earthquakes at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer
- L1-3away to Minnesota United FC8 November 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake31 October 2026
- D2-2Colorado Rapids29 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Dallas25 October 2026
- D1-1Nashville SC18 October 2026
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer
- L0-1St. Louis City8 November 2026
- L1-3away to Portland Timbers2 November 2026
- W1-0away to Seattle Sounders29 October 2026
- D0-0Minnesota United FC25 October 2026
- D2-2FC Dallas18 October 2026
What these results say
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 52 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
- 13 September 2026San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 30 August 2026Houston Dynamo 0–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes 3–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 18 July 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 31 March 2024Houston Dynamo 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd172
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Jose Earthquakes the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes against 1.17 for Houston Dynamo. San Jose Earthquakes's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.15 for Houston Dynamo.
How the model reaches 40% for San Jose Earthquakes to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for San Jose Earthquakes to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, San Jose Earthquakes's ratings change nothing and Houston Dynamo's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- San Jose Earthquakes's ratings42%±0
- Houston Dynamo's ratings40%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
San Jose Earthquakes at home · Houston Dynamo away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: San Jose Earthquakes 34, Houston Dynamo 34.
San Jose Earthquakes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (14 goals); Houston Dynamo have let in 5 there.
Houston Dynamo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); San Jose Earthquakes have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
San Jose Earthquakes
- at Houston Dynamo28 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 29%
Houston Dynamo
- vs San Jose Earthquakes28 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.