Barcelona SC
vs
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Barcelona SC 2–1 Independiente del Valle
The model makes it 37% Barcelona SC, 26% draw, 37% Independiente del Valle — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Barcelona SC 1.58, Independiente del Valle 1.58.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Barcelona SC's rating is built from 75 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Independiente del Valle's from 75, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Barcelona SC are bottom on 49 points from 35 games; Independiente del Valle are top on 84 points from 35 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Barcelona SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to LDU de Quito.
- Independiente del Valle are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Aucas.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente del Valle 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 September 2026, ended Barcelona SC 2–1 Independiente del Valle.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle
Has the model earned this number?
Barcelona SC at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
Liga Pro
- D1-1LDU de Quito8 November 2026
- L0-3away to Macara31 October 2026
- W4-0away to Aucas25 October 2026
- D1-1Universidad Catolica Quito18 October 2026
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito11 October 2026
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro
- W4-2away to Aucas8 November 2026
- W2-0LDU de Quito1 November 2026
- D0-0Universidad Catolica Quito23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Macara17 October 2026
- W2-1Aucas10 October 2026
What these results say
- Barcelona SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 49 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 81 | 37 | +44 | 84 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle
- 3 September 2026Barcelona SC 2–1 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 10 May 2026Independiente del Valle 1–0 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 21 December 2025Independiente del Valle 1–0 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 5 October 2025Barcelona SC 0–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 6 July 2025Independiente del Valle 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 28 May 2025Independiente del Valle 2–1 Barcelona SCCONMEBOL Libertadores
Leading scorers: Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
GoalsAssists
- D. Benedetto92
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- C. González111
- D. Reasco94
- M. Perelló84
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Independiente del Valle (first, with Barcelona SC sixth), while our numbers lean to Barcelona SC. Barcelona SC rate 0.77 in attack and 1.16 in defence, Independiente del Valle 1.13 and 1.26 (lower is better in defence), so Barcelona SC have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 35-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barcelona SC a 0% chance of the title and Independiente del Valle 100%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona SC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Barcelona SC against 1.58 for Independiente del Valle. Barcelona SC's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.26 for Independiente del Valle.
How the model reaches 37% for Barcelona SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barcelona SC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Barcelona SC's ratings take away 6 points and Independiente del Valle's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Barcelona SC's ratings40%−6
- Independiente del Valle's ratings37%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Barcelona SC at home · Independiente del Valle away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Barcelona SC 35, Independiente del Valle 35.
Independiente del Valle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (16 goals); Barcelona SC have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Barcelona SC
- vs Aucas29 Nov · Liga Prowin 55%
- vs Macara6 Dec · Liga Prowin 42%
- at Independiente del Valle13 Dec · Liga Prowin 22%
Independiente del Valle
- at Universidad Catolica Quito29 Nov · Liga Prowin 38%
- at LDU de Quito6 Dec · Liga Prowin 40%
- vs Barcelona SC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.