League Stage - 5 · 25 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League prediction

Stamford Bridge, London

Our model says: Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Fenerbahçe

The model makes it 36% Shakhtar Donetsk, 28% draw, 36% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.36, Fenerbahçe 1.34.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Shakhtar Donetsk and Fenerbahçe are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Shakhtar Donetsk's rating is built from 42 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Fenerbahçe's from 45 Süper Lig matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 22 matches for Shakhtar Donetsk, 24 for Fenerbahçe. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.

Key facts

  • Shakhtar Donetsk are 21st on 4 points from 4 games; Fenerbahçe are 19th on 5 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sporting CP.
  • Fenerbahçe have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Liverpool.
  • Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2022, ended Fenerbahçe 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe

56%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Shakhtar Donetsk win Draw Fenerbahçe win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–09%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read Shakhtar Donetsk first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Shakhtar Donetsk at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe

Shakhtar Donetsk

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-1Sporting CP3 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter21 October 2026
  • W3-1AEK Athens FC14 October 2026
  • D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven10 September 2026

Fenerbahçe

UEFA Champions League

  • W3-2Liverpool4 November 2026
  • D2-2Slavia Praha20 October 2026
  • L0-6away to Aston Villa14 October 2026
  • D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026

What these results say

  • Shakhtar Donetsk conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Shakhtar Donetsk had two goals or fewer.
  • Fenerbahçe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Fenerbahçe failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Fenerbahçe scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Shakhtar Donetsk41124404
19Fenerbahçe4121611-55

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe

  • 19 April 2022Fenerbahçe 1–0 Shakhtar DonetskFriendlies Clubs
  • 5 August 2015Shakhtar Donetsk 3–0 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
  • 28 July 2015Fenerbahçe 0–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Fenerbahçe

Shakhtar Donetsk

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • M. Greenwood42
  • Talisca40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fenerbahçe (19th, with Shakhtar Donetsk 21st), while our numbers lean to Shakhtar Donetsk. Shakhtar Donetsk rate 0.99 in attack and 0.89 in defence, Fenerbahçe 1.35 and 0.89 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Shakhtar Donetsk Fenerbahçe
0.99 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.35
0.89 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.89
1.36 Model expected goals (this match) 1.34

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 1.34 for Fenerbahçe. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.35/0.89 for Fenerbahçe.

Shakhtar Donetsk carry a model rating of 6.91 against 7.06 for Fenerbahçe. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings take away 5 points and Fenerbahçe's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage47%+10
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%−2
  4. Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings40%−5
  5. Fenerbahçe's ratings36%−4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Shakhtar DonetskFenerbahçe
12Matches11
9W 2D 1LRecord6W 1D 4L
22 1.8 per gameGoals scored29 2.6 per game
5 0.4 per gameGoals conceded10 0.9 per game
8 of 12Clean sheets6 of 11
3 of 12Failed to score1 of 11
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 3
15 1.3 per gameYellow cards20 1.8 per game
1Red cards1
4-3-3 3×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

Shakhtar Donetsk at home · Fenerbahçe away

8Played6
5W 2D 1LRecord3W 1D 2L
14–4Goals for – against12–4
5 of 8Clean sheets4 of 6

League matches only, this season — Shakhtar Donetsk in the Premier League, Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Shakhtar Donetsk 12 in the Premier League, Fenerbahçe 11 in the Süper Lig.

Shakhtar Donetsk scored 314365
Fenerbahçe conceded 113113

Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.

Fenerbahçe scored 745544
Shakhtar Donetsk conceded 102011

Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Shakhtar Donetsk

  • vs Bukovyna28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 76%
  • vs Kryvbas KR5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 78%
  • at Slovan Bratislava9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
  • vs Kudrivka12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 85%

Fenerbahçe

  • vs Erzurumspor FK29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 75%
  • at Başakşehir5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 43%
  • at Lask Linz9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 53%
  • vs Trabzonspor13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 48%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.