Regular Season - 38 · 14 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR Serie B prediction

Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas

Our model says: Ponte Preta 1–2 Operario-PR

The model makes it 20% Ponte Preta, 23% draw, 57% Operario-PR — fair odds of 5.00, 4.35 and 1.75.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).

Expected goals: Ponte Preta 1.10, Operario-PR 2.17.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.

One-sided: Operario-PR are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Ponte Preta's rating is built from 36 Brazilian Serie B matches and Operario-PR's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Ponte Preta are bottom on 15 points from 36 games; Operario-PR are 10th on 51 points from 35 games — Serie B.
  • Ponte Preta have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Criciuma.
  • Operario-PR have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Athletic Club MG.
  • Last 6 meetings: Operario-PR 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended Operario-PR 3–2 Ponte Preta.

More Brazilian Serie B predictions

All Brazilian Serie B predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR

60%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ponte Preta win Draw Operario-PR win
  1. 1–210%
  2. 1–110%
  3. 0–29%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–37%
  6. 0–36%
  7. 2–25%

Scores read Ponte Preta first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Operario-PR at 57%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR

Ponte Preta

Serie B

  • L0-2away to Criciuma30 October 2026
  • D2-2Fortaleza EC24 October 2026
  • D1-1Atletico Goianiense16 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Novorizontino12 October 2026
  • L0-2Juventude7 October 2026

Operario-PR

Serie B

  • W1-0Athletic Club MG23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to America Mineiro17 October 2026
  • L0-2Goias11 October 2026
  • L1-2Botafogo SP7 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Juventude2 October 2026

What these results say

  • Ponte Preta did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Ponte Preta conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Operario-PR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Operario-PR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Ponte Preta3636272178-5715
10Operario-PR35149124546-151

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR

  • 22 July 2026Operario-PR 3–2 Ponte PretaSerie B
  • 24 August 2024Ponte Preta 0–1 Operario-PRSerie B
  • 11 May 2024Operario-PR 1–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
  • 30 July 2022Ponte Preta 3–0 Operario-PRSerie B
  • 16 April 2022Operario-PR 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
  • 23 September 2021Operario-PR 1–2 Ponte PretaSerie B

Leading scorers: Ponte Preta and Operario-PR

Ponte Preta

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Operario-PR

GoalsAssists

  • Boschilia134
  • Vinícius Diniz71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Operario-PR the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ponte Preta against 2.17 for Operario-PR. Ponte Preta's attack/defence rating is 0.36/2.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.88 for Operario-PR.

How the model reaches 57% for Operario-PR to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Operario-PR to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Ponte Preta's ratings add 13 points and Operario-PR's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 57%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Ponte Preta's ratings42%+13
  4. Operario-PR's ratings57%+15

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Ponte PretaOperario-PR
36Matches35
3W 6D 27LRecord14W 9D 12L
21 0.6 per gameGoals scored45 1.3 per game
78 2.2 per gameGoals conceded46 1.3 per game
3 of 36Clean sheets12 of 35
19 of 36Failed to score9 of 35
2 of 3Penalties scored4 of 4
109 3.0 per gameYellow cards87 2.5 per game
14Red cards3
3-4-2-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 14×

Ponte Preta at home · Operario-PR away

18Played17
2W 6D 10LRecord6W 4D 7L
13–28Goals for – against21–24
3 of 18Clean sheets4 of 17

League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie B matches this season: Ponte Preta 36, Operario-PR 35.

Ponte Preta scored 1412311
Operario-PR conceded 5879512

Ponte Preta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Operario-PR have let in 7 there.

Operario-PR scored 74135511
Ponte Preta conceded 8101812821

Operario-PR score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Ponte Preta have let in 18 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.