Londrina
vs
Nautico Recife
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Londrina 2–1 Nautico Recife
The model makes it 49% Londrina, 25% draw, 26% Nautico Recife — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Londrina 1.99, Nautico Recife 1.32.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Londrina's rating is built from 35 Brazilian Serie B matches and Nautico Recife's from 35, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Londrina are 18th on 32 points from 35 games; Nautico Recife are 15th on 43 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- Londrina have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to CRB.
- Nautico Recife have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Juventude.
- Last 6 meetings: Londrina 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 July 2026, ended Nautico Recife 2–1 Londrina.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Londrina vs Nautico Recife
Has the model earned this number?
Londrina at 49%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Londrina vs Nautico Recife
Londrina
Serie B
- L1-2away to CRB24 October 2026
- W1-0Cuiaba20 October 2026
- D2-2away to Athletic Club MG13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Avai7 October 2026
- L0-2Criciuma2 October 2026
Nautico Recife
Serie B
- L0-4away to Juventude26 October 2026
- D0-0away to Goias19 October 2026
- L0-2Vila Nova11 October 2026
- L0-2Novorizontino8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
What these results say
- Londrina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Londrina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Londrina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 32 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Londrina vs Nautico Recife
- 23 July 2026Nautico Recife 2–1 LondrinaSerie B
- 10 August 2025Londrina 0–2 Nautico RecifeSerie C
- 24 August 2024Londrina 3–2 Nautico RecifeSerie C
- 23 July 2022Nautico Recife 1–2 LondrinaSerie B
- 10 April 2022Londrina 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 22 September 2021Nautico Recife 1–2 LondrinaSerie B
Leading scorers: Londrina and Nautico Recife
Londrina
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Santos113
Nautico Recife
GoalsAssists
- Vinícius93
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Londrina carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.24 for Nautico Recife.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Londrina and 1.32 for Nautico Recife.
Londrina rate 0.64 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nautico Recife rate 0.56 and 1.91.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nautico Recife, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Londrina the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Londrina against 1.32 for Nautico Recife. Londrina's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.91 for Nautico Recife.
How the model reaches 49% for Londrina to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Londrina to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Londrina's ratings add 2 points and Nautico Recife's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Londrina's ratings48%+2
- Nautico Recife's ratings49%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Londrina at home · Nautico Recife away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Londrina 35, Nautico Recife 35.
Londrina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Nautico Recife have let in 10 there.
Nautico Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Londrina have let in 12 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.