Botafogo SP
vs
Sport Recife
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Botafogo SP 1–2 Sport Recife
The model makes it 32% Botafogo SP, 28% draw, 40% Sport Recife — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Botafogo SP 1.28, Sport Recife 1.48.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Sport Recife: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Botafogo SP are 16th on 41 points from 33 games; Sport Recife are 8th on 51 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Botafogo SP have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Ceara.
- Sport Recife have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Fortaleza EC.
- Last 6 meetings: Sport Recife 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 July 2026, ended Sport Recife 3–3 Botafogo SP.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sport Recife at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
Botafogo SP
- W1-0Ceara13 October 2026
- W2-1away to Operario-PR7 October 2026
- L0-1Vila Nova3 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta29 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club MG19 September 2026
Sport Recife
- L0-2Fortaleza EC16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Goianiense11 October 2026
- W2-1São Bernardo6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Athletic Club MG1 October 2026
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
What these results say
- Botafogo SP scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Botafogo SP had two goals or fewer.
- Sport Recife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Recife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sport Recife.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
- 10 July 2026Sport Recife 3–3 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 21 October 2024Sport Recife 3–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 29 June 2024Botafogo SP 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 3 September 2023Botafogo SP 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 20 May 2023Sport Recife 3–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 14 November 2019Botafogo SP 0–2 Sport RecifeSerie B
Leading scorers: Botafogo SP and Sport Recife
Botafogo SP
GoalsAssists
- Everton Morelli92
- Hygor80
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Perotti121
- Chrystian Barletta114
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Botafogo SP carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.51 for Sport Recife. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Botafogo SP and 1.48 for Sport Recife. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botafogo SP rate 0.55 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sport Recife rate 0.72 and 1.43.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sport Recife the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Botafogo SP against 1.48 for Sport Recife. Botafogo SP's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.43 for Sport Recife.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Botafogo SP at home · Sport Recife away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Botafogo SP 33, Sport Recife 34.
Botafogo SP score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Sport Recife have let in 5 there.
Sport Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Botafogo SP have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Botafogo SP
- vs Londrina6 Nov · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Juventude14 Nov · Serie Bwin 17%
Sport Recife
- at Operario-PR6 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Goias14 Nov · Serie Bwin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.