Cuiaba
vs
São Bernardo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Cuiaba 1–0 São Bernardo
The model makes it 41% Cuiaba, 29% draw, 30% São Bernardo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cuiaba 1.39, São Bernardo 1.09.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Cuiaba are 11th on 47 points from 33 games; São Bernardo are 12th on 46 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Cuiaba have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Avai.
- São Bernardo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Juventude.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cuiaba vs São Bernardo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cuiaba at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cuiaba vs São Bernardo
Cuiaba
- L0-1Avai11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Vila Nova7 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta3 October 2026
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
- W3-0Nautico Recife22 September 2026
São Bernardo
- D2-2away to Juventude11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife6 October 2026
- W3-1CRB2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Novorizontino25 September 2026
- W1-0Atletico Goianiense19 September 2026
What these results say
- São Bernardo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cuiaba vs São Bernardo
- 12 July 2026São Bernardo 2–2 CuiabaSerie B
Leading scorers: Cuiaba and São Bernardo
Cuiaba
GoalsAssists
- Kauan63
São Bernardo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cuiaba carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.44 for São Bernardo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Cuiaba and 1.09 for São Bernardo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cuiaba rate 0.54 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; São Bernardo rate 0.69 and 1.58.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cuiaba the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cuiaba against 1.09 for São Bernardo. Cuiaba's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.58 for São Bernardo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cuiaba at home · São Bernardo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Cuiaba 33, São Bernardo 33.
Cuiaba score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); São Bernardo have let in 10 there.
São Bernardo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Cuiaba have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Cuiaba
- vs Juventude7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- at Atletico Goianiense14 Nov · Serie Bwin 26%
São Bernardo
- at Avai7 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
- vs Athletic Club MG14 Nov · Serie Bwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.