Vila Nova
vs
Juventude
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Vila Nova 1–0 Juventude
The model makes it 40% Vila Nova, 28% draw, 32% Juventude — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vila Nova 1.42, Juventude 1.23.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vila Nova are top on 61 points from 33 games; Juventude are 3rd on 60 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Nautico Recife.
- Juventude are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to São Bernardo.
- Last 6 meetings: Vila Nova 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 July 2026, ended Juventude 1–0 Vila Nova.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vila Nova vs Juventude
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vila Nova at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vila Nova vs Juventude
Vila Nova
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife11 October 2026
- D0-0Cuiaba7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botafogo SP3 October 2026
- W2-0Londrina25 September 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro18 September 2026
Juventude
- D2-2São Bernardo11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Ponte Preta7 October 2026
- W3-0Operario-PR2 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife19 September 2026
What these results say
- Vila Nova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Vila Nova kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Vila Nova had two goals or fewer.
- Juventude scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 61 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 39 | 21 | +18 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vila Nova vs Juventude
- 10 July 2026Juventude 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 7 August 2023Juventude 0–2 Vila NovaSerie B
- 30 April 2023Vila Nova 1–0 JuventudeSerie B
- 9 April 2021Vila Nova 1–1 JuventudeCopa Do Brasil
- 8 May 2019Vila Nova 0–0 JuventudeCopa Do Brasil
- 25 April 2019Juventude 0–0 Vila NovaCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Vila Nova and Juventude
Vila Nova
GoalsAssists
- Janderson88
- André Luís82
Juventude
GoalsAssists
- Raí74
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vila Nova carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.56 for Juventude. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Vila Nova and 1.23 for Juventude. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vila Nova rate 0.65 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juventude rate 0.75 and 1.34.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vila Nova a 22.6% chance of the title and Juventude 21.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vila Nova the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Vila Nova against 1.23 for Juventude. Vila Nova's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.34 for Juventude.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vila Nova at home · Juventude away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Vila Nova 33, Juventude 33.
Vila Nova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); Juventude have let in 2 there.
Juventude score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Vila Nova have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Vila Nova
- vs Criciuma6 Nov · Serie Bwin 46%
- at Fortaleza EC14 Nov · Serie Bwin 24%
Juventude
- at Cuiaba7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Botafogo SP14 Nov · Serie Bwin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.