Nautico Recife
vs
Avai
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Nautico Recife 2–1 Avai
The model makes it 45% Nautico Recife, 26% draw, 29% Avai — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nautico Recife 1.67, Avai 1.23.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Nautico Recife are 14th on 42 points from 33 games; Avai are 17th on 36 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Nautico Recife are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Vila Nova.
- Avai have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Cuiaba.
- Last 6 meetings: Avai 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Avai 2–0 Nautico Recife.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nautico Recife vs Avai
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nautico Recife at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nautico Recife vs Avai
Nautico Recife
- L0-2Vila Nova11 October 2026
- L0-2Novorizontino8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
- W3-1Sport Recife26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba22 September 2026
Avai
- W1-0away to Cuiaba11 October 2026
- W2-1Londrina7 October 2026
- L0-1Ceara3 October 2026
- L0-3away to Criciuma27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Goias20 September 2026
What these results say
- Nautico Recife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Avai conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 42 |
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nautico Recife vs Avai
- 12 July 2026Avai 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 21 November 2021Nautico Recife 1–2 AvaiSerie B
- 14 August 2021Avai 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 6 November 2020Nautico Recife 2–2 AvaiSerie B
- 9 August 2020Avai 3–1 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 12 November 2016Avai 3–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
Leading scorers: Nautico Recife and Avai
Nautico Recife
GoalsAssists
- Vinícius93
Avai
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nautico Recife carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.27 for Avai. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Nautico Recife and 1.23 for Avai. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nautico Recife rate 0.59 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Avai rate 0.55 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nautico Recife the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Nautico Recife against 1.23 for Avai. Nautico Recife's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.74 for Avai.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nautico Recife at home · Avai away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Nautico Recife 33, Avai 33.
Nautico Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Avai have let in 12 there.
Avai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Nautico Recife have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Nautico Recife
- vs CRB8 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
- at Londrina14 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
Avai
- vs São Bernardo7 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
- at America Mineiro14 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.