Juventude
vs
Botafogo SP
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Juventude 1–0 Botafogo SP
The model makes it 56% Juventude, 26% draw, 18% Botafogo SP — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Juventude 1.77, Botafogo SP 0.79.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Edge to Juventude: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Juventude's rating is built from 35 Brazilian Serie B matches and Botafogo SP's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Juventude are 2nd on 64 points from 35 games; Botafogo SP are 12th on 47 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- Juventude are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to Nautico Recife.
- Botafogo SP are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Avai.
- Last 6 meetings: Botafogo SP 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Botafogo SP 4–2 Juventude.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juventude vs Botafogo SP
Has the model earned this number?
Juventude at 56%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Juventude vs Botafogo SP
Juventude
Serie B
- W4-0Nautico Recife26 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ceara17 October 2026
- D2-2São Bernardo11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Ponte Preta7 October 2026
- W3-0Operario-PR2 October 2026
Botafogo SP
Serie B
- W2-0away to Avai24 October 2026
- W1-0away to CRB18 October 2026
- W1-0Ceara13 October 2026
- W2-1away to Operario-PR7 October 2026
- L0-1Vila Nova3 October 2026
What these results say
- Juventude went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Juventude scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Juventude had three goals or more.
- Botafogo SP won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo SP scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Botafogo SP had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Juventude | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 64 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventude vs Botafogo SP
- 24 July 2026Botafogo SP 4–2 JuventudeSerie B
- 29 July 2023Botafogo SP 0–2 JuventudeSerie B
- 15 April 2023Juventude 1–2 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 2 December 2020Botafogo SP 1–1 JuventudeSerie B
- 29 August 2020Juventude 0–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 28 August 2016Juventude 0–0 Botafogo SPSerie C
Leading scorers: Juventude and Botafogo SP
Juventude
GoalsAssists
- Raí95
Botafogo SP
GoalsAssists
- Everton Morelli102
- Hygor90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Juventude carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.34 for Botafogo SP.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Juventude and 0.79 for Botafogo SP.
Juventude rate 0.69 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botafogo SP rate 0.57 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Juventude a 28.4% chance of the title and Botafogo SP 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventude the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Juventude against 0.79 for Botafogo SP. Juventude's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.58 for Botafogo SP.
How the model reaches 56% for Juventude to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Juventude to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Juventude's ratings add 6 points and Botafogo SP's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Juventude's ratings49%+6
- Botafogo SP's ratings56%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Juventude at home · Botafogo SP away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Juventude 35, Botafogo SP 35.
Juventude score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Botafogo SP have let in 3 there.
Botafogo SP score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Juventude have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.