Nottingham Forest
vs
Manchester City
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester City
The model makes it 19% Nottingham Forest, 24% draw, 57% Manchester City — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 0.95, Manchester City 1.99.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Manchester City are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Nottingham Forest's rating is built from 46 Premier League matches and Manchester City's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 831 matches.
Key facts
- Nottingham Forest are 17th on 6 points from 8 games; Manchester City are top on 21 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Nottingham Forest are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ipswich.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Ipswich.
- Last 6 meetings: Manchester City 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 March 2026, ended Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham Forest.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester City at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Premier League
- D1-1away to Ipswich23 October 2026
- L0-1Arsenal18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Crystal Palace11 October 2026
- L0-1Coventry19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aston Villa12 September 2026
Manchester City
Premier League
- W3-2Ipswich17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Liverpool11 October 2026
- W5-3Sunderland20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Manchester United13 September 2026
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
What these results say
- Nottingham Forest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City won every one of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
- 4 March 2026Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 27 December 2025Nottingham Forest 1–2 Manchester CityPremier League
- 27 April 2025Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester CityFA Cup
- 8 March 2025Nottingham Forest 1–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 4 December 2024Manchester City 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 28 April 2024Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Nottingham Forest and Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland80
- R. Cherki42
- A. Semenyo23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nottingham Forest carry a model rating of 6.86 against 7.3 for Manchester City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.99 for Manchester City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nottingham Forest rate 0.88 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manchester City rate 1.65 and 0.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nottingham Forest a 0% chance of the title and Manchester City 57.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nottingham Forest against 1.99 for Manchester City. Nottingham Forest's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.65/0.67 for Manchester City.
How the model reaches 57% for Manchester City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Manchester City to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Nottingham Forest's ratings take away 1 point and Manchester City's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Nottingham Forest's ratings32%−1
- Manchester City's ratings57%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nottingham Forest at home · Manchester City away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Nottingham Forest 8, Manchester City 7.
Nottingham Forest score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Manchester City have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Nottingham Forest
- at Bournemouth21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Chelsea27 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Hull City2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Brighton5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 24%
Manchester City
- vs Fulham21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 67%
- vs Napoli24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.