Hobro
vs
Esbjerg
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Hobro 2–1 Esbjerg
The model makes it 44% Hobro, 26% draw, 30% Esbjerg — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hobro 1.71, Esbjerg 1.33.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Hobro's rating is built from 44 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Esbjerg's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Hobro are 5th on 15 points from 12 games; Esbjerg are bottom on 7 points from 11 games — 1. Division.
- Hobro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Vendsyssel FF.
- Esbjerg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Aarhus Fremad.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Esbjerg 1–2 Hobro.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hobro vs Esbjerg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hobro at 44% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hobro vs Esbjerg
Hobro
1. Division
- D2-2Vendsyssel FF23 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Fredericia17 October 2026
- D1-1Kolding IF10 October 2026
- L2-5away to HB Koge21 September 2026
- D0-0Vejle11 September 2026
Esbjerg
1. Division
- D0-0away to Aarhus Fremad16 October 2026
- D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026
- L0-3away to AB Copenhagen19 September 2026
- D2-2HB Koge12 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Fredericia5 September 2026
What these results say
- Hobro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hobro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esbjerg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Esbjerg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hobro | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 15 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hobro vs Esbjerg
- 15 August 2026Esbjerg 1–2 Hobro1. Division
- 16 October 2025Esbjerg 1–1 Hobro1. Division
- 24 August 2025Hobro 2–0 Esbjerg1. Division
- 3 November 2024Esbjerg 3–2 Hobro1. Division
- 26 July 2024Hobro 3–6 Esbjerg1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hobro carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.11 for Esbjerg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Hobro and 1.33 for Esbjerg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hobro rate 0.48 in attack and 2.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Esbjerg rate 0.50 and 2.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hobro a 0.1% chance of the title and Esbjerg 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hobro the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hobro against 1.33 for Esbjerg. Hobro's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.19 for Esbjerg.
How the model reaches 44% for Hobro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hobro to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Hobro's ratings take away 33 points and Esbjerg's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Hobro's ratings11%−33
- Esbjerg's ratings44%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hobro at home · Esbjerg away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Hobro 12, Esbjerg 11.
Hobro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Esbjerg have let in 7 there.
Esbjerg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Hobro have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hobro
- at Aarhus Fremad20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- vs FC Fredericia29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 24%
- at Vejle6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 17%
- vs Hillerød20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 42%
Esbjerg
- vs AB Copenhagen21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 34%
- at Aalborg26 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
- at Kolding IF4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.