CSKA 1948
vs
Spartak Varna
First League prediction
Our model says: CSKA 1948 2–0 Spartak Varna
The model makes it 64% CSKA 1948, 22% draw, 14% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: CSKA 1948 2.19, Spartak Varna 0.76.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,628 settled matches.
One-sided: CSKA 1948 are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. CSKA 1948's rating is built from 48 Bulgarian First League matches and Spartak Varna's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- CSKA 1948 are 4th on 25 points from 12 games; Spartak Varna are 7th on 13 points from 12 games — First League.
- CSKA 1948 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Botev Plovdiv.
- Spartak Varna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Dunav Ruse.
- Last 6 meetings: CSKA 1948 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended Spartak Varna 2–2 CSKA 1948.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA 1948 at 64% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 1,238 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna
CSKA 1948
First League
- W4-0Botev Plovdiv23 October 2026
- L2-3CSKA Sofia11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia5 September 2026
Spartak Varna
First League
- L0-2away to Dunav Ruse24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botev Vratsa10 October 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia13 September 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
What these results say
- CSKA 1948 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA 1948 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CSKA 1948 had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Spartak Varna had two goals or fewer.
- Spartak Varna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 25 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
CSKA 1948
Chance to finish in the top four · 89% today
Spartak Varna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna
- 17 July 2026Spartak Varna 2–2 CSKA 1948First League
- 14 March 2026Spartak Varna 1–2 CSKA 1948First League
- 4 October 2025CSKA 1948 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 29 November 2024Spartak Varna 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 28 July 2024CSKA 1948 2–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 3 May 2023Spartak Varna 3–3 CSKA 1948First League
Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and Spartak Varna
CSKA 1948
GoalsAssists
- Frédéric Maciel10
Spartak Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
CSKA 1948 carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.13 for Spartak Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for CSKA 1948 and 0.76 for Spartak Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA 1948 rate 0.81 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Varna rate 0.46 and 1.96.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA 1948 a 2.4% chance of the title and Spartak Varna 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,393 correct results out of 4,980 settled predictions (48%), with 496 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on CSKA 1948 v Spartak Varna has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 62% / 23% / 15% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 64% / 22% / 14%: the biggest move is CSKA 1948's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- CSKA 1948 win64%▲ +2
- Draw22%▼ −1
- Spartak Varna win14%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for CSKA 1948 against 0.76 for Spartak Varna. CSKA 1948's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.96 for Spartak Varna.
How the model reaches 64% for CSKA 1948 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CSKA 1948 to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, CSKA 1948's ratings take away 13 points and Spartak Varna's ratings add 37 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- CSKA 1948's ratings27%−13
- Spartak Varna's ratings64%+37
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CSKA 1948 at home · Spartak Varna away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: CSKA 1948 12, Spartak Varna 12.
CSKA 1948 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Spartak Varna have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
CSKA 1948
- at Ludogorets7 Nov · First Leaguewin 26%
- at Botev Vratsa22 Nov · First Leaguewin 50%
- at Arda Kardzhali29 Nov · First Leaguewin 45%
- vs Lokomotiv Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 61%
- at Cherno More Varna13 Feb · First Leaguewin 52%
Spartak Varna
- vs Arda Kardzhali8 Nov · First Leaguewin 31%
- vs Cherno More Varna21 Nov · First Leaguewin 37%
- at Lokomotiv Plovdiv28 Nov · First Leaguewin 27%
- vs Botev Plovdiv5 Dec · First Leaguewin 30%
- at Septemvri Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.