Hillerød
vs
Kolding IF
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Hillerød 1–0 Kolding IF
The model makes it 40% Hillerød, 30% draw, 30% Kolding IF — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hillerød 1.30, Kolding IF 1.04.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Hillerød's rating is built from 43 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Kolding IF's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Hillerød are 11th on 9 points from 11 games; Kolding IF are 8th on 12 points from 11 games — 1. Division.
- Hillerød are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Hvidovre.
- Kolding IF are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Vendsyssel FF.
- Last 6 meetings: Kolding IF 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 September 2026, ended Kolding IF 1–1 Hillerød.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hillerød vs Kolding IF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hillerød at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hillerød vs Kolding IF
Hillerød
1. Division
- L0-1away to Hvidovre18 October 2026
- L0-2FC Fredericia10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kolding IF18 September 2026
- W1-0AB Copenhagen12 September 2026
- D1-1away to HB Koge4 September 2026
Kolding IF
1. Division
- W2-1Vendsyssel FF16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hobro10 October 2026
- D1-1Hillerød18 September 2026
- D0-0FC Fredericia12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Aarhus Fremad6 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Hillerød had two goals or fewer.
- Hillerød failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hillerød conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kolding IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kolding IF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kolding IF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hillerød | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Kolding IF | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hillerød vs Kolding IF
- 18 September 2026Kolding IF 1–1 Hillerød1. Division
- 25 May 2026Kolding IF 3–0 Hillerød1. Division
- 25 April 2026Hillerød 2–0 Kolding IF1. Division
- 1 November 2025Hillerød 1–1 Kolding IF1. Division
- 29 August 2025Kolding IF 0–0 Hillerød1. Division
- 18 October 2024Kolding IF 3–1 Hillerød1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hillerød carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.17 for Kolding IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Hillerød and 1.04 for Kolding IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hillerød rate 0.45 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kolding IF rate 0.45 and 1.77.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kolding IF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hillerød a 0% chance of the title and Kolding IF 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hillerød the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Hillerød against 1.04 for Kolding IF. Hillerød's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.77 for Kolding IF.
How the model reaches 40% for Hillerød to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hillerød to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Hillerød's ratings take away 32 points and Kolding IF's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Hillerød's ratings12%−32
- Kolding IF's ratings40%+28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hillerød at home · Kolding IF away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Hillerød 11, Kolding IF 11.
Hillerød score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Kolding IF have let in 0 there.
Kolding IF score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Hillerød have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Hillerød
- at FC Fredericia19 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 15%
- vs Vendsyssel FF28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- vs HB Koge5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 42%
Kolding IF
- vs Aalborg20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 44%
- at Hvidovre27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 21%
- vs Esbjerg4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.