Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
Botev Plovdiv
First League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv Sofia 2–1 Botev Plovdiv
The model makes it 37% Lokomotiv Sofia, 26% draw, 37% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.58, Botev Plovdiv 1.60.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,047 settled matches.
A tight game: Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Plovdiv are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Lokomotiv Sofia's rating is built from 49 Bulgarian First League matches and Botev Plovdiv's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Lokomotiv Sofia are 11th on 9 points from 12 games; Botev Plovdiv are 5th on 19 points from 12 games — First League.
- Lokomotiv Sofia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Botev Vratsa.
- Botev Plovdiv have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to CSKA 1948.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 July 2026, ended Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv Sofia.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 37% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 3,818 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League
- D1-1Botev Vratsa24 October 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026
- L0-2CSKA Sofia16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
Botev Plovdiv
First League
- L0-4away to CSKA 194823 October 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia19 September 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arda Kardzhali4 September 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Plovdiv won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Plovdiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lokomotiv Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
Botev Plovdiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
- 21 July 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 27 March 2026Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 6 December 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 3–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 10 August 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 18 April 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 15 December 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 1–5 Botev PlovdivCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv Sofia carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.34 for Botev Plovdiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.60 for Botev Plovdiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.62 in attack and 2.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Plovdiv rate 0.66 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Botev Plovdiv, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,393 correct results out of 4,980 settled predictions (48%), with 496 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv Sofia the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 1.60 for Botev Plovdiv. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.62/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.85 for Botev Plovdiv.
How the model reaches 37% for Lokomotiv Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lokomotiv Sofia to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Lokomotiv Sofia's ratings take away 26 points and Botev Plovdiv's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Lokomotiv Sofia's ratings14%−26
- Botev Plovdiv's ratings37%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lokomotiv Sofia at home · Botev Plovdiv away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Lokomotiv Sofia 12, Botev Plovdiv 12.
Lokomotiv Sofia score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Botev Plovdiv have let in 0 there.
Botev Plovdiv score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Lokomotiv Sofia have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lokomotiv Sofia
- at Septemvri Sofia6 Nov · First Leaguewin 41%
- at Levski Sofia22 Nov · First Leaguewin 10%
- vs Slavia Sofia27 Nov · First Leaguewin 38%
- at CSKA 19485 Dec · First Leaguewin 17%
- vs Arda Kardzhali13 Feb · First Leaguewin 38%
Botev Plovdiv
- vs Dunav Ruse6 Nov · First Leaguewin 48%
- vs CSKA Sofia22 Nov · First Leaguewin 24%
- at Cherno More Varna28 Nov · First Leaguewin 40%
- at Spartak Varna5 Dec · First Leaguewin 42%
- vs Ludogorets13 Feb · First Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.