Regular Season - 14 · 27 November 2026, 11:30 UTC

Shams Azar Qazvin vs Kheybar Khorramabad Persian Gulf Pro League prediction

Sardar Azadegan Stadium, Qazvin

Our model says: Shams Azar Qazvin 2–1 Kheybar Khorramabad

The model makes it 36% Shams Azar Qazvin, 28% draw, 36% Kheybar Khorramabad — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Shams Azar Qazvin 1.40, Kheybar Khorramabad 1.40.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.

A tight game: Shams Azar Qazvin and Kheybar Khorramabad are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Shams Azar Qazvin's rating is built from 34 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Kheybar Khorramabad's from 35, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Shams Azar Qazvin are 17th on 7 points from 11 games; Kheybar Khorramabad are 10th on 14 points from 12 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
  • Shams Azar Qazvin have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sanat Naft.
  • Kheybar Khorramabad have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Tractor Sazi.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 December 2025, ended Kheybar Khorramabad 0–0 Shams Azar Qazvin.

More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions

All Persian Gulf Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Kheybar Khorramabad

57%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Shams Azar Qazvin win Draw Kheybar Khorramabad win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 2–18%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–26%

Scores read Shams Azar Qazvin first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Shams Azar Qazvin at 36%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Shams Azar Qazvin vs Kheybar Khorramabad

Shams Azar Qazvin

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L0-1Sanat Naft5 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Esteghlal Khuzestan25 October 2026
  • D0-0Sepahan FC18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Paykan10 October 2026
  • L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026

Kheybar Khorramabad

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L0-2away to Tractor Sazi7 November 2026
  • L1-2Sepahan FC30 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Gol Gohar23 October 2026
  • W2-1Esteghlal Khuzestan18 October 2026
  • D0-0Persepolis FC14 October 2026

What these results say

  • Shams Azar Qazvin did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Shams Azar Qazvin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Shams Azar Qazvin had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Shams Azar Qazvin11146713-67
10Kheybar Khorramabad123541415-114

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Shams Azar Qazvin

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 70% today

Win 53%
Draw 74%
Defeat 83%

Kheybar Khorramabad

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 4% today

Win <1%
Draw 3%
Defeat 7%

From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Kheybar Khorramabad

  • 4 December 2025Kheybar Khorramabad 0–0 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 6 April 2025Kheybar Khorramabad 0–0 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 1 November 2024Shams Azar Qazvin 2–0 Kheybar KhorramabadPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 29 March 2023Shams Azar Qazvin 2–1 Kheybar KhorramabadAzadegan League
  • 25 October 2022Kheybar Khorramabad 3–1 Shams Azar QazvinAzadegan League
  • 4 April 2022Kheybar Khorramabad 1–0 Shams Azar QazvinAzadegan League

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kheybar Khorramabad (10th, with Shams Azar Qazvin 17th), while our numbers lean to Shams Azar Qazvin. Shams Azar Qazvin rate 0.48 in attack and 1.68 in defence, Kheybar Khorramabad 0.69 and 1.79 (lower is better in defence), so Shams Azar Qazvin have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 7-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Shams Azar Qazvin Kheybar Khorramabad
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.69
1.68 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.79
1.40 Model expected goals (this match) 1.40

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Shams Azar Qazvin the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Shams Azar Qazvin against 1.40 for Kheybar Khorramabad. Shams Azar Qazvin's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.79 for Kheybar Khorramabad.

Shams Azar Qazvin carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.38 for Kheybar Khorramabad. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for Shams Azar Qazvin to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Shams Azar Qazvin to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Shams Azar Qazvin's ratings take away 5 points and Kheybar Khorramabad's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Shams Azar Qazvin's ratings39%−5
  4. Kheybar Khorramabad's ratings36%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Shams Azar QazvinKheybar Khorramabad
11Matches12
1W 4D 6LRecord3W 5D 4L
7 0.6 per gameGoals scored14 1.2 per game
13 1.2 per gameGoals conceded15 1.3 per game
3 of 11Clean sheets3 of 12
6 of 11Failed to score3 of 12
2 of 2Penalties scored–
11 1.0 per gameYellow cards17 1.4 per game
0Red cards4

Shams Azar Qazvin at home · Kheybar Khorramabad away

6Played6
0W 2D 4LRecord1W 3D 2L
3–8Goals for – against6–8
2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Shams Azar Qazvin 11, Kheybar Khorramabad 12.

Shams Azar Qazvin scored 013102
Kheybar Khorramabad conceded 106232

Shams Azar Qazvin score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Kheybar Khorramabad have let in 6 there.

Kheybar Khorramabad scored 223215
Shams Azar Qazvin conceded 223114

Kheybar Khorramabad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Shams Azar Qazvin have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Shams Azar Qazvin

  • at Malavan5 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 31%
  • at Esteghlal FC12 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 13%
  • vs Mes Shahr-e Babak17 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 57%
  • at Fajr Sepasi24 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 22%

Kheybar Khorramabad

  • at Sanat Naft5 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 40%
  • vs Malavan18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 58%
  • at ZOB Ahan24 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.