AEL
vs
Olympiakos
1. Division prediction
Our model says: AEL 1–0 Olympiakos
The model makes it 40% AEL, 28% draw, 32% Olympiakos — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AEL 1.42, Olympiakos 1.20.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. AEL's rating is built from 42 Cypriot First Division matches and Olympiakos's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- AEL are 3rd on 18 points from 9 games; Olympiakos are 9th on 9 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
- AEL have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Krasava Ypsonas.
- Olympiakos have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Apollon Limassol.
- Last 6 meetings: AEL 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended AEL 1–3 Olympiakos.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AEL vs Olympiakos
Has the model earned this number?
AEL at 40%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AEL vs Olympiakos
AEL
1. Division
- W3-1Krasava Ypsonas7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Omonia Nicosia31 October 2026
- L1-3Aris25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Omonia Aradippou18 October 2026
- W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026
Olympiakos
1. Division
- W1-0Apollon Limassol7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Karmiotissa30 October 2026
- D1-1Krasava Ypsonas24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Omonia Nicosia19 October 2026
- L1-2Aris11 October 2026
What these results say
- AEL scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEL conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AEL | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 18 |
| 9 | Olympiakos | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AEL vs Olympiakos
- 9 May 2026AEL 1–3 Olympiakos1. Division
- 14 December 2025Olympiakos 0–0 AEL1. Division
- 22 August 2025AEL 2–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 30 April 2023Olympiakos 1–1 AEL1. Division
- 26 April 2023AEL 1–0 OlympiakosCup
- 5 April 2023Olympiakos 0–0 AELCup
Leading scorers: AEL and Olympiakos
AEL
No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Olympiakos
GoalsAssists
- Zannetos Savva22
- Jean Felipe11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AEL a 0.3% chance of the title and Olympiakos 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEL the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for AEL against 1.20 for Olympiakos. AEL's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.25 for Olympiakos.
How the model reaches 40% for AEL to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AEL to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, AEL's ratings take away 2 points and Olympiakos's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- AEL's ratings42%−2
- Olympiakos's ratings40%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AEL at home · Olympiakos away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: AEL 9, Olympiakos 9.
AEL score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Olympiakos have let in 2 there.
Olympiakos score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); AEL have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AEL
- at AEK Larnaca1 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 14%
- vs Apollon Limassol6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 31%
- at Anorthosis13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- vs Apoel Nicosia20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 34%
Olympiakos
- vs Anorthosis2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 51%
- at Apoel Nicosia5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- at Nea Salamis13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- vs Pafos21 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.