Esteghlal Khuzestan
vs
Malavan
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–1 Malavan
The model makes it 50% Esteghlal Khuzestan, 25% draw, 25% Malavan — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Esteghlal Khuzestan 1.95, Malavan 1.22.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Esteghlal Khuzestan's rating is built from 34 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Malavan's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Esteghlal Khuzestan are 13th on 11 points from 12 games; Malavan are 15th on 10 points from 12 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Esteghlal Khuzestan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Esteghlal FC.
- Malavan have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Sepahan FC.
- Last 5 meetings: Malavan 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 October 2025, ended Malavan 2–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Malavan
Has the model earned this number?
Esteghlal Khuzestan at 50%: of 1,625 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Malavan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D2-2Esteghlal FC7 November 2026
- D0-0away to ZOB Ahan30 October 2026
- W2-0Shams Azar Qazvin25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Kheybar Khorramabad18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Gol Gohar8 October 2026
Malavan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L0-4away to Sepahan FC6 November 2026
- L1-2Chadormalu SC30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Paykan25 October 2026
- L1-2Foolad FC13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Aluminium Arak8 October 2026
What these results say
- Esteghlal Khuzestan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Malavan did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Malavan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Malavan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Malavan | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 29% today
Malavan
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 61% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Malavan
- 24 October 2025Malavan 2–1 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 27 February 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–2 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 27 September 2024Malavan 1–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 May 2024Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 10 November 2023Malavan 1–1 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esteghlal Khuzestan the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan against 1.22 for Malavan. Esteghlal Khuzestan's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.1 for Malavan.
How the model reaches 50% for Esteghlal Khuzestan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Esteghlal Khuzestan to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Esteghlal Khuzestan's ratings add 2 points and Malavan's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Esteghlal Khuzestan's ratings47%+2
- Malavan's ratings50%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Esteghlal Khuzestan at home · Malavan away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Esteghlal Khuzestan 12, Malavan 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Esteghlal Khuzestan
- at Fajr Sepasi6 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 24%
- vs Foolad FC18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 30%
- at Mes Shahr-e Babak23 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 43%
Malavan
- vs Shams Azar Qazvin5 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 41%
- at Kheybar Khorramabad18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 20%
- vs Esteghlal FC23 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.