Paykan
vs
Foolad FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Paykan 0–1 Foolad FC
The model makes it 31% Paykan, 30% draw, 39% Foolad FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Paykan 1.06, Foolad FC 1.26.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
Edge to Foolad FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Paykan's rating is built from 35 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Foolad FC's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Paykan are 11th on 14 points from 12 games; Foolad FC are 4th on 23 points from 12 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Paykan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Nassaji Mazandaran.
- Foolad FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chadormalu SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Foolad FC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 November 2025, ended Foolad FC 1–0 Paykan.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paykan vs Foolad FC
Has the model earned this number?
Foolad FC at 39%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Paykan vs Foolad FC
Paykan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D1-1Nassaji Mazandaran7 November 2026
- W3-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak31 October 2026
- D1-1Malavan25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Fajr Sepasi19 October 2026
- D1-1Shams Azar Qazvin10 October 2026
Foolad FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D1-1away to Chadormalu SC6 November 2026
- W1-0Aluminium Arak30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Persepolis FC25 October 2026
- D0-0Nassaji Mazandaran18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Malavan13 October 2026
What these results say
- Paykan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Paykan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paykan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Foolad FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Foolad FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Foolad FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Paykan | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 4 | Foolad FC | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Paykan
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 15% today
Foolad FC
Chance to finish in the top two · 10% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Paykan vs Foolad FC
- 7 November 2025Foolad FC 1–0 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 February 2025Paykan 3–2 Foolad FCHazfi Cup
- 28 May 2024Foolad FC 2–2 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 24 December 2023Paykan 0–0 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 March 2023Paykan 0–2 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 October 2022Foolad FC 1–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paykan a 0% chance of the title and Foolad FC 3.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Foolad FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Paykan against 1.26 for Foolad FC. Paykan's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.18 for Foolad FC.
How the model reaches 39% for Foolad FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Foolad FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Paykan's ratings add 6 points and Foolad FC's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Paykan's ratings34%+6
- Foolad FC's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Paykan at home · Foolad FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Paykan 12, Foolad FC 12.
Foolad FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Paykan have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Paykan
- at Aluminium Arak4 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 26%
- at Chadormalu SC18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 24%
- vs Sepahan FC24 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 23%
Foolad FC
- vs Tractor Sazi2 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 30%
- at Esteghlal Khuzestan18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 41%
- vs Gol Gohar25 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.