Aluminium Arak
vs
Persepolis FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Aluminium Arak 0–1 Persepolis FC
The model makes it 31% Aluminium Arak, 28% draw, 41% Persepolis FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Aluminium Arak 1.20, Persepolis FC 1.44.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Edge to Persepolis FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Aluminium Arak's rating is built from 34 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Persepolis FC's from 35, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Aluminium Arak are 6th on 17 points from 12 games; Persepolis FC are 2nd on 23 points from 12 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Aluminium Arak have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Mes Shahr-e Babak.
- Persepolis FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Fajr Sepasi.
- Last 6 meetings: Persepolis FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 December 2025, ended Persepolis FC 1–0 Aluminium Arak.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aluminium Arak vs Persepolis FC
Has the model earned this number?
Persepolis FC at 41%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aluminium Arak vs Persepolis FC
Aluminium Arak
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W1-0Mes Shahr-e Babak6 November 2026
- L0-1away to Foolad FC30 October 2026
- D0-0ZOB Ahan23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sanat Naft17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Fajr Sepasi13 October 2026
Persepolis FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L1-2Fajr Sepasi6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Nassaji Mazandaran31 October 2026
- L0-1Foolad FC25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Mes Shahr-e Babak19 October 2026
- D0-0away to Kheybar Khorramabad14 October 2026
What these results say
- Aluminium Arak failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 17 |
| 2 | Persepolis FC | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Persepolis FC
Chance to finish in the top two · 26% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Aluminium Arak vs Persepolis FC
- 14 December 2025Persepolis FC 1–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
- 22 February 2025Aluminium Arak 1–1 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 20 September 2024Persepolis FC 2–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
- 26 April 2024Aluminium Arak 4–4 Persepolis FCHazfi Cup
- 15 February 2024Aluminium Arak 1–0 Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 9 August 2023Persepolis FC 1–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
Leading scorers: Aluminium Arak and Persepolis FC
Aluminium Arak
No player in Persian Gulf Pro League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Persepolis FC
GoalsAssists
- I. Sergeev10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aluminium Arak a 0% chance of the title and Persepolis FC 9.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Persepolis FC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Aluminium Arak against 1.44 for Persepolis FC. Aluminium Arak's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.34 for Persepolis FC.
How the model reaches 41% for Persepolis FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Persepolis FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Aluminium Arak's ratings add 6 points and Persepolis FC's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Aluminium Arak's ratings34%+6
- Persepolis FC's ratings41%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Aluminium Arak at home · Persepolis FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Aluminium Arak 12, Persepolis FC 12.
Persepolis FC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Aluminium Arak have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Aluminium Arak
- vs Paykan4 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 46%
- at Sepahan FC17 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 14%
- vs Tractor Sazi23 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 23%
Persepolis FC
- vs Sepahan FC4 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Gol Gohar19 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 55%
- vs Chadormalu SC25 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 57%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.