Sanat Naft
vs
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Sanat Naft 2–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan
The model makes it 39% Sanat Naft, 27% draw, 34% Esteghlal Khuzestan — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sanat Naft 1.47, Esteghlal Khuzestan 1.33.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sanat Naft's rating is built from 11 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Esteghlal Khuzestan's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sanat Naft are 16th on 10 points from 11 games; Esteghlal Khuzestan are 13th on 11 points from 12 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Sanat Naft have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Shams Azar Qazvin.
- Esteghlal Khuzestan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Esteghlal FC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2024, ended Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–1 Sanat Naft.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sanat Naft vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
Has the model earned this number?
Sanat Naft at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sanat Naft vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
Sanat Naft
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W1-0away to Shams Azar Qazvin5 November 2026
- L0-3away to Tractor Sazi22 October 2026
- W2-1Aluminium Arak17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Persepolis FC9 October 2026
- L1-2Chadormalu SC12 September 2026
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D2-2Esteghlal FC7 November 2026
- D0-0away to ZOB Ahan30 October 2026
- W2-0Shams Azar Qazvin25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Kheybar Khorramabad18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Gol Gohar8 October 2026
What these results say
- Sanat Naft scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sanat Naft conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sanat Naft had three goals or more.
- Esteghlal Khuzestan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 13 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sanat Naft
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 43% today
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 28% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sanat Naft vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
- 12 April 2024Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–1 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
- 28 October 2023Sanat Naft 1–1 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 22 February 2019Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–1 Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League
- 4 October 2018Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–5 Sanat NaftHazfi Cup
- 17 August 2018Sanat Naft 2–2 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 27 April 2018Sanat Naft 3–3 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Esteghlal Khuzestan (13th, with Sanat Naft 16th), while our numbers lean to Sanat Naft. Sanat Naft rate 0.49 in attack and 1.94 in defence, Esteghlal Khuzestan 0.57 and 1.84 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sanat Naft the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sanat Naft against 1.33 for Esteghlal Khuzestan. Sanat Naft's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.84 for Esteghlal Khuzestan.
How the model reaches 39% for Sanat Naft to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sanat Naft to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Sanat Naft's ratings take away 3 points and Esteghlal Khuzestan's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Sanat Naft's ratings41%−3
- Esteghlal Khuzestan's ratings39%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sanat Naft at home · Esteghlal Khuzestan away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Sanat Naft 11, Esteghlal Khuzestan 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sanat Naft
- at Esteghlal FC28 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 11%
- vs Kheybar Khorramabad5 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Gol Gohar14 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 31%
- vs ZOB Ahan19 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Nassaji Mazandaran25 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 23%
Esteghlal Khuzestan
- vs Malavan27 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 50%
- at Fajr Sepasi6 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 24%
- vs Foolad FC18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 30%
- at Mes Shahr-e Babak23 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.