Kheybar Khorramabad
vs
Esteghlal FC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Kheybar Khorramabad 1–2 Esteghlal FC
The model makes it 31% Kheybar Khorramabad, 27% draw, 42% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kheybar Khorramabad 1.30, Esteghlal FC 1.62.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Esteghlal FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Kheybar Khorramabad's rating is built from 35 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Esteghlal FC's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Kheybar Khorramabad are 10th on 14 points from 12 games; Esteghlal FC are 5th on 21 points from 11 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Kheybar Khorramabad have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Tractor Sazi.
- Esteghlal FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Esteghlal Khuzestan.
- Last 3 meetings: Kheybar Khorramabad 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 December 2025, ended Kheybar Khorramabad 1–1 Esteghlal FC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal FC
Has the model earned this number?
Esteghlal FC at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal FC
Kheybar Khorramabad
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L0-2away to Tractor Sazi7 November 2026
- L1-2Sepahan FC30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gol Gohar23 October 2026
- W2-1Esteghlal Khuzestan18 October 2026
- D0-0Persepolis FC14 October 2026
Esteghlal FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D2-2away to Esteghlal Khuzestan7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Chadormalu SC23 October 2026
- W1-0Gol Gohar19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tractor Sazi8 October 2026
- W1-0Paykan10 September 2026
What these results say
- Esteghlal FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Esteghlal FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Esteghlal FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 5 | Esteghlal FC | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kheybar Khorramabad
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 4% today
Esteghlal FC
Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal FC
- 15 December 2025Kheybar Khorramabad 1–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 29 March 2025Esteghlal FC 1–1 Kheybar KhorramabadPersian Gulf Pro League
- 26 October 2024Kheybar Khorramabad 3–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kheybar Khorramabad a 0% chance of the title and Esteghlal FC 14.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esteghlal FC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kheybar Khorramabad against 1.62 for Esteghlal FC. Kheybar Khorramabad's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.16 for Esteghlal FC.
How the model reaches 42% for Esteghlal FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Esteghlal FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Kheybar Khorramabad's ratings add 7 points and Esteghlal FC's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Kheybar Khorramabad's ratings36%+7
- Esteghlal FC's ratings42%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kheybar Khorramabad at home · Esteghlal FC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Kheybar Khorramabad 12, Esteghlal FC 11.
Kheybar Khorramabad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Esteghlal FC have let in 2 there.
Esteghlal FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Kheybar Khorramabad have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kheybar Khorramabad
- at Shams Azar Qazvin27 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Sanat Naft5 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 40%
- vs Malavan18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 58%
- at ZOB Ahan24 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 34%
Esteghlal FC
- at Al Ain23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 24%
- vs Sanat Naft28 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 69%
- at ZOB Ahan3 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 45%
- vs Neftchi Fergana7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 77%
- vs Shams Azar Qazvin12 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 64%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.