Fajr Sepasi
vs
Chadormalu SC
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Chadormalu SC
The model makes it 45% Fajr Sepasi, 24% draw, 31% Chadormalu SC — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fajr Sepasi 2.00, Chadormalu SC 1.59.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Fajr Sepasi's rating is built from 34 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Chadormalu SC's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Fajr Sepasi are 7th on 17 points from 11 games; Chadormalu SC are 8th on 17 points from 12 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Fajr Sepasi are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Persepolis FC.
- Chadormalu SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Foolad FC.
- Last 3 meetings: Chadormalu SC 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 December 2025, ended Fajr Sepasi 1–2 Chadormalu SC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fajr Sepasi vs Chadormalu SC
Has the model earned this number?
Fajr Sepasi at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fajr Sepasi vs Chadormalu SC
Fajr Sepasi
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W2-1away to Persepolis FC6 November 2026
- D2-2away to Nassaji Mazandaran25 October 2026
- W2-0Paykan19 October 2026
- W2-1Aluminium Arak13 October 2026
- L1-6away to Sepahan FC8 October 2026
Chadormalu SC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D1-1Foolad FC6 November 2026
- W2-1away to Malavan30 October 2026
- D1-1Esteghlal FC23 October 2026
- W2-1away to ZOB Ahan18 October 2026
- D2-2Kheybar Khorramabad9 October 2026
What these results say
- Fajr Sepasi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fajr Sepasi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fajr Sepasi had three goals or more.
- Chadormalu SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Chadormalu SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chadormalu SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fajr Sepasi | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Chadormalu SC | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fajr Sepasi vs Chadormalu SC
- 10 December 2025Fajr Sepasi 1–2 Chadormalu SCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 May 2024Chadormalu SC 3–0 Fajr SepasiAzadegan League
- 6 December 2023Fajr Sepasi 0–1 Chadormalu SCAzadegan League
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fajr Sepasi the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Fajr Sepasi against 1.59 for Chadormalu SC. Fajr Sepasi's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.73 for Chadormalu SC.
How the model reaches 45% for Fajr Sepasi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fajr Sepasi to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Fajr Sepasi's ratings take away 1 point and Chadormalu SC's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level47%+3
- Fajr Sepasi's ratings46%−1
- Chadormalu SC's ratings45%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fajr Sepasi at home · Chadormalu SC away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Fajr Sepasi 11, Chadormalu SC 12.
Fajr Sepasi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Chadormalu SC have let in 5 there.
Chadormalu SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Fajr Sepasi have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fajr Sepasi
- at Gol Gohar30 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 27%
- vs Esteghlal Khuzestan6 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 52%
- vs Tractor Sazi12 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 24%
- at Esteghlal FC18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 17%
- vs Shams Azar Qazvin24 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 53%
Chadormalu SC
- vs Mes Shahr-e Babak26 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 71%
- at Nassaji Mazandaran4 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Paykan18 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 51%
- at Persepolis FC25 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.