Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Obolon'-Brovar
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Shakhtar Donetsk 3–0 Obolon'-Brovar
The model makes it 86% Shakhtar Donetsk, 10% draw, 4% Obolon'-Brovar — fair odds of 1.16, 10.00 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 3.47, Obolon'-Brovar 0.48.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,708 settled matches.
One-sided: Shakhtar Donetsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Shakhtar Donetsk's rating is built from 40 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Obolon'-Brovar's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Shakhtar Donetsk are 2nd on 25 points from 10 games; Obolon'-Brovar are 13th on 7 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Zorya Luhansk.
- Obolon'-Brovar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Polessya.
- Last 6 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 May 2026, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Obolon'-Brovar.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 86% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar
Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League
- D0-0Zorya Luhansk24 October 2026
- W2-1Kolos Kovalivka17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026
- W3-0LNZ Cherkasy20 September 2026
- W2-0Chornomorets14 September 2026
Obolon'-Brovar
Premier League
- L0-3away to Polessya23 October 2026
- W2-0Veres Rivne16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chornomorets18 September 2026
- L1-3away to LNZ Cherkasy12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Kharkiv5 September 2026
What these results say
- Shakhtar Donetsk went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Obolon'-Brovar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Obolon'-Brovar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 25 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shakhtar Donetsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 78% today
Obolon'-Brovar
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 83% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar
- 13 May 2026Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 22 November 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–6 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 29 March 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 23 September 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 4–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 30 March 2024Obolon'-Brovar 0–3 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 16 September 2023Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar
Shakhtar Donetsk
GoalsAssists
- Kauã Elias30
- O. Ocheretko21
Obolon'-Brovar
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
A clear gap in the ratings
Shakhtar Donetsk carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.1 for Obolon'-Brovar.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.47 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.48 for Obolon'-Brovar.
Shakhtar Donetsk rate 1.06 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Obolon'-Brovar rate 0.45 and 2.01.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 78% chance of the title and Obolon'-Brovar 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,159 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 86%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.47 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 0.48 for Obolon'-Brovar. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 1.06/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.01 for Obolon'-Brovar.
How the model reaches 86% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings add 23 points and Obolon'-Brovar's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 86%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings66%+23
- Obolon'-Brovar's ratings86%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Shakhtar Donetsk at home · Obolon'-Brovar away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Shakhtar Donetsk 10, Obolon'-Brovar 9.
Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Obolon'-Brovar have let in 2 there.
Obolon'-Brovar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Shakhtar Donetsk
- vs Sporting CP3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 27%
- vs Dynamo Kyiv7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 64%
- at Livyi Bereh21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Fenerbahçe25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 42%
- vs Bukovyna28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 78%
Obolon'-Brovar
- vs Livyi Bereh7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Dynamo Kyiv21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 9%
- vs Zorya Luhansk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Karpaty5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.