Kolos Kovalivka
vs
Polessya
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Kolos Kovalivka 0–1 Polessya
The model makes it 29% Kolos Kovalivka, 28% draw, 43% Polessya — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Kolos Kovalivka 1.12, Polessya 1.50.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Polessya: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kolos Kovalivka are 9th on 8 points from 8 games; Polessya are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Kolos Kovalivka have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Shakhtar Donetsk.
- Polessya are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Bukovyna.
- Last 6 meetings: Polessya 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Kolos Kovalivka 0–2 Polessya.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polessya at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya
Kolos Kovalivka
- L1-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk17 October 2026
- W3-1Epitsentr Dunayivtsi10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Kudrivka20 September 2026
- L0-2Karpaty11 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kryvbas KR5 September 2026
Polessya
- D2-2away to Bukovyna11 October 2026
- W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026
- W1-0Livyi Bereh13 September 2026
- W5-1Kudrivka4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk29 August 2026
What these results say
- Kolos Kovalivka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kolos Kovalivka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kolos Kovalivka had three goals or more.
- Polessya went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polessya scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polessya won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kolos Kovalivka
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Polessya
Chance to finish in the top four · 86% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya
- 22 February 2026Kolos Kovalivka 0–2 PolessyaPremier League
- 12 October 2025Polessya 2–1 Kolos KovalivkaFriendlies Clubs
- 10 August 2025Polessya 0–1 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
- 27 April 2025Kolos Kovalivka 1–1 PolessyaPremier League
- 25 October 2024Polessya 1–1 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
- 14 April 2024Polessya 1–0 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
Leading scorers: Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya
Kolos Kovalivka
GoalsAssists
- D. Ndukwe20
Polessya
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kolos Kovalivka carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.69 for Polessya. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.50 for Polessya. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kolos Kovalivka rate 0.59 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Polessya rate 0.85 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kolos Kovalivka a 0% chance of the title and Polessya 8.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polessya the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka against 1.50 for Polessya. Kolos Kovalivka's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.17 for Polessya.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kolos Kovalivka at home · Polessya away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Kolos Kovalivka 8, Polessya 8.
Kolos Kovalivka score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Polessya have let in 1 there.
Polessya score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Kolos Kovalivka have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kolos Kovalivka
- at Bukovyna7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs FC Kharkiv21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Livyi Bereh28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Polessya
- vs Veres Rivne7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 68%
- at LNZ Cherkasy21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Karpaty28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.