Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Sporting CP
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 Sporting CP
The model makes it 32% Shakhtar Donetsk, 24% draw, 44% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.13, 4.17 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.69, Sporting CP 2.09.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Edge to Sporting CP: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Shakhtar Donetsk's rating is built from 39 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Sporting CP's from 42 Primeira Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 686 matches.
Key facts
- Shakhtar Donetsk are 11th on 4 points from 2 games; Sporting CP are 6th on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kolos Kovalivka.
- Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to SC Braga.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 44% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP
Shakhtar Donetsk
- W3-1AEK Athens FC14 October 2026
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven10 September 2026
Sporting CP
- W2-0away to Lens13 October 2026
- W3-1Galatasaray9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Shakhtar Donetsk carry a model rating of 6.93 against 7.21 for Sporting CP. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2.09 for Sporting CP. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shakhtar Donetsk rate 1.09 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting CP rate 1.62 and 0.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 2.09 for Sporting CP. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.62/0.8 for Sporting CP.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shakhtar Donetsk at home · Sporting CP away
League matches only, this season — Shakhtar Donetsk in the Premier League, Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Shakhtar Donetsk 9 in the Premier League, Sporting CP 8 in the Primeira Liga.
Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Sporting CP have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Shakhtar Donetsk
- vs Dynamo Kyiv7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 64%
- at Livyi Bereh21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 58%
Sporting CP
- vs Moreirense7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 76%
- vs Manchester United25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.