Livyi Bereh
vs
Bukovyna
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Livyi Bereh 1–0 Bukovyna
The model makes it 45% Livyi Bereh, 31% draw, 24% Bukovyna — fair odds of 2.22, 3.23 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Livyi Bereh 1.31, Bukovyna 0.82.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Livyi Bereh are 12th on 7 points from 7 games; Bukovyna are 10th on 8 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Livyi Bereh have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Zorya Luhansk.
- Bukovyna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Kudrivka.
- Last 3 meetings: Bukovyna 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 April 2026, ended Bukovyna 2–1 Livyi Bereh.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Livyi Bereh at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna
Livyi Bereh
- L1-3Zorya Luhansk12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Polessya13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chornomorets4 September 2026
- D1-1Karpaty29 August 2026
Bukovyna
- L1-4away to Kudrivka17 October 2026
- D2-2Polessya11 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Kharkiv19 September 2026
- D1-1Zorya Luhansk13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi6 September 2026
What these results say
- Livyi Bereh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Livyi Bereh had two goals or fewer.
- Bukovyna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bukovyna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Livyi Bereh
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Bukovyna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna
- 8 April 2026Bukovyna 2–1 Livyi BerehPersha Liga
- 22 September 2025Livyi Bereh 1–3 BukovynaPersha Liga
- 10 October 2021Bukovyna 1–3 Livyi BerehDruha Liga - Group A
Leading scorers: Livyi Bereh and Bukovyna
Livyi Bereh
GoalsAssists
- N. Vorobchak20
- Wendell12
Bukovyna
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Livyi Bereh carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.24 for Bukovyna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Livyi Bereh and 0.82 for Bukovyna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Livyi Bereh rate 0.47 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bukovyna rate 0.51 and 1.72.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bukovyna, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Livyi Bereh the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Livyi Bereh against 0.82 for Bukovyna. Livyi Bereh's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.72 for Bukovyna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Livyi Bereh at home · Bukovyna away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Livyi Bereh 7, Bukovyna 9.
Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Bukovyna have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Livyi Bereh
- at Obolon'-Brovar7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Shakhtar Donetsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Kolos Kovalivka28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Bukovyna
- vs Kolos Kovalivka7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Veres Rivne21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 6%
- vs Chornomorets5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.