Veres Rivne
vs
Chornomorets
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Veres Rivne 1–0 Chornomorets
The model makes it 41% Veres Rivne, 31% draw, 28% Chornomorets — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Veres Rivne 1.23, Chornomorets 0.93.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Veres Rivne are 8th on 9 points from 9 games; Chornomorets are 14th on 5 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Veres Rivne have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Obolon'-Brovar.
- Chornomorets have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Zorya Luhansk.
- Last 6 meetings: Veres Rivne 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 April 2025, ended Veres Rivne 2–1 Chornomorets.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Veres Rivne at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets
Veres Rivne
- L0-2away to Obolon'-Brovar16 October 2026
- L0-3Shakhtar Donetsk9 October 2026
- W2-1Kudrivka3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Karpaty20 September 2026
- D1-1Zorya Luhansk6 September 2026
Chornomorets
- L1-2away to Zorya Luhansk17 October 2026
- L1-2FC Kharkiv10 October 2026
- D1-1Obolon'-Brovar18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk14 September 2026
- D0-0Livyi Bereh4 September 2026
What these results say
- Veres Rivne conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Veres Rivne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chornomorets did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chornomorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Veres Rivne
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Chornomorets
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 39% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets
- 20 April 2025Veres Rivne 2–1 ChornomoretsPremier League
- 20 October 2024Chornomorets 1–1 Veres RivnePremier League
- 17 March 2024Chornomorets 0–1 Veres RivnePremier League
- 1 September 2023Veres Rivne 3–1 ChornomoretsPremier League
- 4 March 2023Veres Rivne 1–3 ChornomoretsPremier League
- 23 August 2022Chornomorets 0–1 Veres RivnePremier League
Leading scorers: Veres Rivne and Chornomorets
Veres Rivne
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Chornomorets
GoalsAssists
- K. Popov20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Veres Rivne carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.23 for Chornomorets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Veres Rivne and 0.93 for Chornomorets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Veres Rivne rate 0.46 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chornomorets rate 0.47 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Veres Rivne the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Veres Rivne against 0.93 for Chornomorets. Veres Rivne's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.64 for Chornomorets.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Veres Rivne at home · Chornomorets away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Veres Rivne 9, Chornomorets 8.
Chornomorets score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Veres Rivne have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Veres Rivne
- at Polessya7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 11%
- vs Bukovyna21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Kryvbas KR28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Livyi Bereh5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
Chornomorets
- at Kudrivka7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Dynamo Kyiv28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.